***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 2.4 8.1 8.3 79.7 58.0 37.5 2.6 5.9 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 2.5 7.3 8.6 81.5 58.9 39.6 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 2.9 9.6 8.6 85.4 59.9 39.9 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 4.9 18.7 10.8 91.8 62.9 41.8 4.9 11.2 21.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.9 13.8 10.6 94.7 63.5 42.5 3.9 8.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.4 13.4 12.1 90.7 62.4 45.2 3.8 8.4 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 2.7 8.3 8.8 83.2 59.8 39.5 3.0 6.1 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 6.0 18.9 12.8 97.4 63.6 45.8 6.1 12.1 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.6 11.7 10.1 89.1 61.3 42.4 3.6 7.8 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.8 14.8 12.1 92.4 61.9 44.6 5.0 9.9 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 4.5 14.5 11.0 95.7 64.0 43.9 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 4.7 14.3 11.7 100.2 65.2 44.6 4.9 9.0 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 4.1 13.4 11.7 92.7 63.6 44.7 4.2 8.4 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.7 12.7 11.3 82.4 58.1 41.7 5.8 10.2 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 3.3 13.5 10.5 91.0 63.5 40.7 3.2 7.5 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.7 11.5 11.1 92.1 63.3 43.4 3.8 7.4 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.1 5.3 8.4 73.1 55.7 39.7 2.2 4.3 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 4.7 14.2 13.6 96.9 63.3 46.6 4.9 9.2 15.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.5 7.0 8.5 80.2 58.0 39.3 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 6.0 17.5 16.7 102.9 65.2 49.4 6.1 11.0 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.9 11.2 9.0 86.1 60.3 41.0 4.0 8.0 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 2.3 5.5 8.6 69.9 54.3 39.7 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.7 8.6 8.7 80.0 57.3 39.1 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 4.8 13.4 11.2 91.2 61.5 43.6 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 4.1 11.0 8.9 77.0 57.2 38.9 4.3 8.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.3 12.5 12.4 102.1 66.2 46.8 3.5 7.2 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 3.3 10.1 8.7 77.5 57.2 37.8 3.6 7.8 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 4.0 15.0 11.1 95.6 64.5 42.7 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.5 24.1 15.0 102.4 65.0 48.5 8.4 15.4 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 2.3 7.1 8.8 84.6 60.3 39.5 2.5 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------