***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 45.0 44.3 41.7 90.9 55.3 50.5 24.5 39.1 57.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 41.4 41.8 42.8 96.9 57.9 51.9 23.2 35.4 49.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 47.1 46.0 41.5 92.4 55.6 50.1 27.8 41.3 57.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 64.0 56.7 40.7 85.2 52.3 46.3 36.5 54.1 75.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 46.2 43.4 40.1 89.1 54.5 48.1 25.8 39.5 55.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 47.0 43.0 45.6 90.1 53.8 48.0 26.7 39.7 55.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 44.8 46.9 43.3 97.2 58.4 52.6 26.3 39.3 54.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 77.9 73.6 48.5 92.8 55.2 48.7 45.7 66.8 91.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 46.9 43.8 40.6 88.2 53.7 47.5 27.5 40.6 56.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 53.3 49.7 47.6 90.3 54.0 47.9 31.7 46.0 62.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 47.1 44.3 40.3 89.4 54.5 47.8 28.4 40.6 55.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 47.5 45.7 42.5 93.3 56.4 49.0 26.9 40.0 55.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 46.7 43.6 42.1 89.6 54.9 48.1 26.2 39.1 55.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 62.9 56.3 50.2 88.5 51.9 47.1 35.9 54.0 75.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 41.2 37.4 38.7 87.1 54.9 46.8 20.6 33.2 48.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 42.6 38.1 39.9 87.3 53.4 46.9 23.2 35.2 50.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 43.3 42.9 43.5 96.6 57.6 51.5 24.4 36.6 51.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 58.2 53.2 52.2 90.7 53.0 47.9 33.8 50.2 69.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 46.3 46.4 42.7 95.7 56.9 51.0 27.7 40.3 55.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 70.4 69.2 60.1 95.8 56.0 50.8 47.7 63.4 80.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 49.2 46.1 40.1 89.3 54.4 48.3 26.9 41.7 59.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 46.3 46.2 46.0 97.7 57.7 51.3 26.6 39.4 54.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 45.3 43.6 42.3 92.0 54.6 48.7 28.0 39.9 53.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 57.9 53.5 46.8 89.7 53.0 48.0 33.3 50.2 70.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 51.7 51.6 45.3 93.2 56.7 51.2 31.1 45.2 62.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 41.3 37.2 40.2 88.3 53.4 46.8 22.2 34.2 49.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 49.8 51.4 46.4 95.7 57.8 52.6 28.2 43.3 61.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 22.8 37.0 38.2 83.9 52.4 45.8 22.0 34.8 50.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 90.2 85.6 55.5 92.6 53.9 49.0 57.9 80.0 105.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 41.2 42.8 43.3 96.9 58.0 52.3 23.6 35.7 50.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------