***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 12.7 13.2 16.7 1.9 80.1 75.7 10.7 11.5 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 13.0 13.6 16.4 1.9 80.9 76.8 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 15.0 15.5 16.7 1.7 78.3 74.0 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 10.7 11.4 14.2 2.0 80.7 77.6 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 11.7 12.3 15.1 1.9 81.0 76.7 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 11.0 11.4 12.1 1.8 79.5 76.6 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 13.0 13.3 16.5 1.8 79.1 75.4 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 6.5 7.2 12.4 1.8 80.7 76.8 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 12.7 13.4 15.1 1.8 82.4 77.7 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 12.4 12.9 13.3 1.7 80.4 76.1 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 12.2 12.7 14.7 1.8 81.2 76.8 10.2 11.0 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 10.7 11.2 13.5 1.9 80.6 76.9 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 11.5 12.0 13.3 1.7 80.0 76.5 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 13.2 13.5 14.5 1.4 75.8 72.1 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 13.6 14.3 16.2 2.1 84.6 81.0 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 13.0 13.6 14.0 1.9 81.5 77.7 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 13.3 13.8 16.2 2.0 82.4 78.5 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 11.5 11.9 12.6 1.6 77.5 73.9 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 12.9 13.5 16.4 1.9 81.4 76.9 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 7.7 8.0 10.7 1.6 76.9 73.5 5.3 6.3 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 12.4 12.8 16.2 1.7 79.3 74.7 10.3 11.2 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 12.3 12.8 16.5 1.8 80.7 76.8 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 12.3 13.1 16.5 1.9 82.0 76.7 10.2 11.2 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 12.6 13.0 14.7 1.5 77.5 73.7 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 12.9 13.5 16.2 2.1 81.4 76.7 10.5 11.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 11.7 11.9 12.3 1.6 75.6 73.1 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 13.7 14.6 16.5 2.1 80.8 76.6 10.4 11.8 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 11.3 11.8 14.6 1.9 81.2 78.0 9.3 10.2 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 10.5 10.9 11.8 1.5 76.8 73.3 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 13.3 13.8 16.6 1.8 79.0 75.1 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------