***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.5 15.2 0.7 62.2 59.1 11.0 11.9 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 12.5 12.3 15.0 0.8 64.8 61.7 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.5 15.5 0.8 64.6 60.9 12.6 13.6 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.9 10.5 12.6 0.8 64.8 61.6 8.2 9.5 10.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.0 13.1 0.6 61.9 58.7 9.3 10.3 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.9 10.5 0.4 59.0 56.7 8.5 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.5 15.1 0.7 63.4 60.8 10.8 11.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.9 6.4 10.9 0.6 63.4 60.2 4.3 5.5 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 10.6 12.2 13.2 0.4 59.8 56.8 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.9 11.7 0.6 62.3 59.0 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.4 12.8 0.6 64.0 60.3 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.9 11.7 0.5 61.2 58.3 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.1 11.0 0.2 53.4 52.3 9.1 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.3 13.0 0.4 58.9 56.5 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.6 14.2 0.7 64.2 60.7 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.9 12.0 12.0 0.5 59.9 57.1 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 13.0 12.9 14.8 0.9 66.4 63.0 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.5 11.1 0.5 61.6 58.2 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 12.7 12.5 15.1 0.9 66.7 63.1 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.6 9.2 0.5 61.0 58.4 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.7 14.5 0.5 60.4 57.4 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 12.1 12.0 15.0 0.9 67.2 63.5 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 12.1 12.1 15.2 1.0 68.9 64.6 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.8 13.1 0.5 61.3 58.2 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.2 14.1 0.7 62.3 59.3 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 10.6 10.2 10.4 0.0 49.8 49.0 9.4 10.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.7 14.6 0.7 62.5 59.4 10.8 11.9 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.6 12.9 0.6 62.8 59.5 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.7 10.0 10.5 0.6 62.2 59.1 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.7 15.2 0.8 63.5 60.6 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------