***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 11.8 12.1 13.9 1.4 73.0 66.4 9.6 10.7 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 12.3 12.4 13.6 1.3 73.0 66.7 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 14.2 14.4 14.1 1.3 72.1 66.5 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 8.9 9.9 11.2 1.1 70.2 63.7 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.2 11.0 11.3 0.9 67.7 62.4 8.7 9.8 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.9 9.4 0.8 66.1 60.7 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 12.3 12.4 13.7 1.2 71.6 65.4 10.0 11.1 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.4 6.1 9.5 0.9 67.6 62.9 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 11.9 11.9 11.5 0.9 67.7 63.0 9.7 10.8 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.5 10.2 0.9 67.2 62.6 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.4 11.0 10.8 0.9 66.9 61.8 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.5 10.2 10.1 0.9 66.9 62.2 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.5 9.2 0.7 62.9 58.9 8.6 9.7 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 12.2 12.3 11.8 1.1 69.5 64.6 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 12.0 12.1 12.3 1.0 70.6 63.7 10.4 11.2 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.8 10.1 0.8 65.0 60.1 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 12.3 12.5 13.4 1.3 73.3 66.7 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 10.7 10.5 9.6 0.8 65.4 61.4 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 12.2 12.4 13.8 1.4 73.7 67.6 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.2 6.7 7.5 0.8 65.1 61.2 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 11.7 11.8 13.1 1.1 69.9 64.8 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 11.4 11.5 13.5 1.3 72.8 66.9 9.2 10.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 11.8 12.1 13.8 1.4 74.1 68.3 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 11.5 11.5 11.5 0.9 67.7 63.5 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 12.4 12.6 12.5 1.4 72.6 66.1 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 10.2 10.6 9.1 0.7 63.2 58.9 8.9 9.9 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 12.9 13.3 13.2 1.4 73.6 66.6 9.8 11.2 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.7 10.5 11.4 1.0 69.5 62.8 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.7 9.0 0.8 64.9 61.1 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 12.6 12.8 13.8 1.3 72.5 66.3 10.0 11.2 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------