***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.2 12.1 0.2 52.9 51.8 8.9 10.0 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 8.5 10.1 11.7 0.0 50.9 50.9 8.8 10.0 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.3 12.3 0.1 52.7 51.8 11.0 12.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.0 8.2 9.6 0.4 58.1 55.5 6.3 7.6 8.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 7.7 9.4 9.8 0.2 55.2 53.5 8.0 9.1 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 7.1 8.7 8.1 0.4 59.2 56.0 7.3 8.2 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.6 10.2 11.8 0.0 50.7 50.7 9.1 10.2 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.3 4.3 8.1 0.3 56.9 55.5 2.9 3.9 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 8.9 10.3 10.0 0.2 53.6 52.5 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.8 10.1 8.8 0.3 55.6 54.3 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 8.3 9.8 9.3 0.3 57.1 55.1 8.5 9.5 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 7.3 8.8 8.7 0.4 57.9 55.9 7.4 8.3 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.4 9.5 8.1 0.5 59.2 56.4 8.1 9.0 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.6 10.1 0.2 54.0 52.8 9.6 10.4 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 9.1 10.8 10.8 0.4 59.7 56.3 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 9.2 10.7 8.8 0.5 59.4 56.3 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 8.9 10.2 11.5 0.0 50.2 50.6 9.1 10.2 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.2 8.3 0.3 56.6 55.1 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.5 10.1 11.8 0.1 51.9 51.4 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.1 5.3 6.4 0.3 56.9 55.6 4.2 5.0 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.9 11.4 0.1 52.7 51.8 8.7 9.7 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 8.0 9.2 11.5 0.0 50.4 50.5 8.2 9.2 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.8 11.9 0.2 53.8 52.4 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.9 9.9 0.3 55.3 54.1 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.3 10.8 0.2 53.6 52.7 8.9 10.1 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 8.0 9.5 7.9 0.4 58.8 56.6 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.6 11.5 0.2 53.4 52.3 8.9 10.3 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 7.4 9.3 9.9 0.4 59.6 56.2 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.2 7.8 0.3 57.1 55.5 6.6 7.7 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 9.1 10.5 11.9 0.1 51.5 51.2 9.2 10.4 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------