***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 26.0 25.6 25.7 1.3 64.2 61.8 22.5 24.2 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 26.3 25.6 26.0 1.2 62.8 60.4 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 24.9 25.2 25.7 1.0 60.7 58.6 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 18.6 18.5 23.0 1.6 66.2 63.3 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 26.3 25.8 24.1 1.3 63.4 60.7 23.0 24.6 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 24.1 24.7 21.5 1.3 63.4 60.9 22.0 23.5 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 25.9 25.5 26.1 1.4 64.9 62.3 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.7 21.3 0.7 57.2 55.2 11.7 13.1 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 24.9 25.4 24.8 1.2 62.6 59.8 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 24.5 24.7 22.4 0.9 59.0 56.6 22.3 23.9 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.5 24.3 1.3 62.8 59.7 22.8 24.4 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 24.3 24.5 22.7 1.0 60.0 57.5 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.8 23.9 1.3 63.5 60.7 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.8 24.6 23.8 0.5 54.9 53.6 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 26.4 26.6 26.1 1.9 69.9 66.4 23.5 24.9 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 25.7 26.5 23.9 1.5 64.6 61.4 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 25.5 25.3 26.1 1.7 67.6 64.2 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 23.7 23.5 21.2 0.5 55.3 53.7 21.6 23.1 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 25.9 25.3 26.0 1.2 62.9 60.1 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.0 19.5 19.0 0.2 52.6 51.5 17.7 19.3 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 24.9 25.4 25.5 1.1 61.4 59.0 22.8 24.4 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 25.9 25.5 25.9 1.4 64.8 61.5 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 24.9 25.6 26.0 1.4 65.0 61.0 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 24.4 24.5 23.8 0.7 57.2 55.3 22.4 23.8 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 26.1 25.8 24.8 1.6 66.3 63.5 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.0 22.0 0.7 57.6 56.2 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 25.9 25.8 25.3 1.6 66.8 64.1 22.7 24.2 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 26.3 26.2 24.3 1.6 66.4 63.3 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.2 18.9 20.4 0.4 53.8 52.5 17.1 18.6 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 26.0 25.2 25.9 1.0 61.2 59.2 22.7 24.2 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------