***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 26.0 26.5 25.8 2.1 74.4 70.5 22.5 24.1 25.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 26.1 26.7 26.5 2.4 77.1 72.8 22.5 24.0 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 25.9 26.4 26.1 2.1 74.0 70.0 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 19.4 20.1 23.2 2.1 74.1 69.4 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 26.6 27.1 24.1 1.9 72.1 67.9 23.4 25.0 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 24.6 25.8 21.4 1.4 67.3 63.3 22.4 24.1 25.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 25.7 26.3 26.3 2.4 76.9 72.8 22.2 23.7 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 13.9 15.1 21.8 1.5 68.0 64.4 12.1 13.5 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 26.2 26.7 24.7 1.9 72.7 68.3 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 25.9 26.2 22.8 1.7 69.9 66.0 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 26.3 26.8 24.2 1.9 71.9 67.3 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 24.6 26.0 23.0 1.6 68.9 64.9 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 25.7 27.2 23.3 1.7 69.6 65.3 23.6 25.3 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 26.1 26.3 24.4 1.9 72.3 68.3 22.7 24.2 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 26.7 27.5 25.2 2.1 75.8 70.3 23.6 25.1 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 45 55 100 27.3 27.8 23.7 1.8 71.8 67.1 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 25.2 26.1 26.4 2.7 80.4 75.5 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 25.1 25.2 22.0 1.6 68.8 65.3 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 25.8 26.5 26.6 2.5 77.7 73.1 22.3 23.8 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 21.1 21.0 19.7 1.3 66.1 63.4 18.2 19.6 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 26.2 26.7 25.5 1.9 72.3 68.3 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 25.9 26.7 26.3 2.6 79.1 74.2 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 25.9 26.8 26.6 2.6 79.0 73.9 22.5 24.0 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 25.8 26.1 24.2 1.9 71.8 67.9 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 26.0 26.6 24.4 2.0 74.3 70.1 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 25.5 26.4 22.2 1.3 65.0 61.8 23.4 25.0 26.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 25.9 26.5 25.1 2.1 75.3 71.3 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 27.0 27.6 24.0 2.0 73.6 68.6 23.8 25.3 26.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 20.6 20.6 21.2 1.5 67.4 64.4 17.5 19.0 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 25.7 26.3 26.2 2.2 74.9 71.0 22.3 23.9 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------