***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 24.2 24.6 23.8 1.8 73.4 66.8 21.3 22.7 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 24.8 25.4 24.1 2.0 74.4 68.0 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 25.0 25.7 24.3 2.0 74.7 67.7 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 18.0 18.5 21.8 1.8 74.8 67.0 14.7 16.2 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 25.6 26.1 22.3 1.8 74.0 66.2 22.2 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 24.9 25.2 20.0 1.7 73.3 66.5 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 24.2 24.8 23.9 1.9 73.2 67.1 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 14.6 15.1 20.8 1.9 74.0 66.4 11.4 12.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 25.3 25.9 22.6 1.9 74.1 66.5 22.0 23.6 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 24.9 25.6 21.5 2.0 74.5 66.7 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 25.3 26.1 22.2 2.0 75.7 67.4 22.0 23.6 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 24.8 25.4 21.8 1.9 74.7 67.1 21.2 22.9 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 25.9 26.3 21.2 1.9 73.9 67.0 22.3 23.9 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 25.2 25.9 22.5 2.0 74.1 67.4 21.7 23.4 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 25.2 25.8 22.8 1.9 76.6 69.0 22.0 23.5 24.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 26.3 26.9 21.9 2.0 75.5 67.7 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 24.1 24.5 24.0 2.0 74.9 68.5 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 24.2 24.9 21.0 2.0 74.1 66.9 20.8 22.5 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 24.7 25.4 24.3 2.1 75.5 68.8 21.6 23.1 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 20.5 20.8 18.7 1.8 71.6 65.3 17.2 18.7 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 25.1 25.6 23.4 1.8 73.1 66.1 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 25.1 25.5 23.9 2.0 73.9 67.7 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 25.1 25.8 24.4 2.3 76.9 69.7 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 25.0 25.7 22.5 2.1 75.0 67.7 21.6 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 24.6 25.0 22.1 1.7 73.4 66.4 21.7 23.1 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 25.7 25.9 21.3 1.8 72.3 66.0 22.0 23.7 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 24.5 25.0 23.0 1.8 73.8 67.1 21.7 23.1 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 25.3 25.9 22.2 1.9 75.4 67.7 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 19.9 20.4 20.1 1.9 72.8 66.2 16.3 18.0 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 23.5 25.1 24.1 1.9 73.7 67.4 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------