***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 19.7 21.5 21.3 -0.1 49.2 48.6 20.1 21.5 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 20.4 21.8 21.5 -0.1 48.6 48.2 20.7 21.9 23.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 20.3 22.0 21.6 0.0 49.4 48.7 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 13.0 15.3 19.4 0.3 54.8 52.2 13.3 14.9 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.4 19.8 0.1 51.6 50.2 20.7 22.3 23.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 19.3 21.7 18.0 0.4 55.3 52.6 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 20.1 21.4 21.4 -0.2 47.6 47.6 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.6 18.4 0.2 53.1 51.8 9.9 11.4 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.0 20.1 0.0 50.5 49.6 20.4 22.0 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 22.2 21.8 19.0 0.1 51.8 50.8 20.1 21.6 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 22.7 22.4 19.7 0.3 53.7 51.8 20.5 22.1 23.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 22.1 21.8 19.4 0.3 54.1 52.3 19.9 21.5 22.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 23.0 22.6 18.8 0.3 53.3 51.7 20.7 22.3 23.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 23.0 22.2 19.9 -0.2 48.0 48.0 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 20.4 22.6 20.4 0.6 59.3 55.2 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 23.5 23.2 19.4 0.4 54.7 52.4 21.2 22.8 24.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 21.8 21.3 21.4 0.0 49.7 49.2 20.1 21.3 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 21.7 21.1 18.5 0.0 50.6 50.2 19.6 21.1 22.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 20.1 21.7 21.7 0.0 49.4 48.7 20.4 21.7 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.2 16.3 0.1 50.9 50.6 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 20.2 21.9 20.8 -0.1 49.0 48.4 20.5 22.0 23.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.0 21.3 -0.1 48.9 48.5 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 20.4 22.1 21.7 0.0 50.6 49.5 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 22.6 21.9 20.0 0.0 49.9 49.5 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 19.7 21.6 19.7 0.1 51.2 49.8 20.1 21.5 22.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.4 19.0 0.3 53.8 52.3 20.5 22.0 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 19.8 21.5 20.5 0.0 49.9 49.1 20.2 21.6 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 22.7 22.7 19.8 0.5 56.9 53.6 20.5 22.1 23.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 17.2 16.5 17.7 0.0 49.9 49.8 14.9 16.5 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 20.0 21.6 21.5 -0.1 48.2 48.0 20.4 21.7 23.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------