***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 24.1 24.5 24.1 1.3 72.7 68.1 22.2 23.1 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 24.5 24.8 24.5 1.4 73.2 68.2 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 24.4 24.7 24.4 1.3 71.9 66.9 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 17.5 18.0 21.9 1.5 75.0 69.1 15.4 16.4 17.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 25.0 25.3 22.6 1.3 72.5 66.8 22.9 23.9 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 24.1 24.3 20.2 1.2 72.2 66.8 21.9 23.0 23.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 24.1 24.4 24.4 1.4 73.3 68.4 22.1 23.1 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 13.7 13.8 20.6 1.1 69.6 64.4 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 24.6 24.9 23.1 1.3 72.4 66.6 22.6 23.6 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 24.4 24.5 21.4 1.2 70.8 65.2 22.2 23.3 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 24.8 25.1 22.6 1.4 73.5 67.3 22.8 23.7 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 24.2 24.4 21.7 1.2 71.4 65.8 22.0 23.0 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 25.2 25.4 21.8 1.3 72.5 66.7 23.0 24.0 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 23.9 24.7 22.6 1.1 68.9 63.9 22.6 23.6 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 24.8 25.5 23.6 1.6 78.2 72.0 22.9 23.8 24.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 25.7 26.0 22.2 1.4 74.4 68.2 23.5 24.5 25.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 23.7 24.2 24.5 1.6 76.5 71.1 21.7 22.6 23.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 22.8 23.6 20.7 1.0 68.6 63.6 21.6 22.5 23.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 24.2 24.6 24.7 1.5 74.1 68.7 22.3 23.2 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 19.7 19.6 18.4 0.9 65.9 61.7 17.8 18.7 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 24.6 24.8 23.8 1.2 71.0 65.8 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 24.4 24.8 24.3 1.5 74.4 69.0 22.3 23.3 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 24.4 24.9 24.7 1.6 76.4 70.1 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 24.2 24.4 22.6 1.2 70.5 65.2 22.3 23.3 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 24.3 24.7 22.8 1.4 74.1 68.9 22.3 23.3 24.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 24.9 24.9 21.1 1.0 67.9 63.5 22.8 23.8 24.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 24.3 24.6 23.5 1.4 74.5 69.6 22.3 23.2 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 25.0 25.5 22.6 1.5 75.5 69.4 23.0 23.9 24.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 18.3 19.0 19.8 0.9 67.0 62.4 17.1 18.0 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 24.2 24.5 24.4 1.3 71.5 66.8 22.3 23.2 24.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------