***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.7 17.3 16.3 140.1 75.8 48.7 2.4 5.8 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.3 13.5 15.7 143.7 76.4 49.2 2.2 4.8 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.7 19.2 19.3 162.7 79.6 53.8 2.4 5.6 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.2 33.6 21.8 191.9 83.8 52.7 4.8 10.0 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.4 18.2 19.8 171.5 80.6 55.8 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.7 23.3 21.1 177.5 82.0 52.9 3.3 7.2 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.6 14.8 14.5 127.1 72.8 45.3 2.4 6.0 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 28.4 55.7 30.2 238.7 89.5 65.9 5.9 12.6 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 13.4 21.8 22.9 209.5 85.7 60.3 3.1 6.2 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 14.8 25.8 29.5 226.9 87.9 63.9 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 11.5 18.1 22.1 203.4 85.1 59.2 3.1 5.9 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 15.3 25.3 23.2 208.3 85.8 61.5 3.7 7.3 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.4 19.0 22.3 177.7 81.9 56.6 3.1 6.2 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 19.0 31.6 27.9 201.7 84.7 63.0 3.3 7.6 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 1.7 19.9 22.6 245.0 89.0 51.6 1.6 3.8 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.5 23.1 20.2 183.1 82.9 55.8 3.2 6.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.7 14.6 13.5 124.8 72.5 48.2 2.4 5.9 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 16.6 29.1 31.3 223.6 87.8 66.8 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.3 20.3 17.1 154.6 78.3 52.2 2.7 6.5 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 24.2 49.7 37.1 275.5 92.0 73.1 5.5 10.8 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 13.3 19.7 20.5 185.6 82.9 56.3 3.1 6.3 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.7 17.2 15.5 138.0 75.2 53.0 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.6 17.9 19.6 174.3 81.3 56.2 2.1 5.0 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 15.8 25.4 25.8 195.5 84.0 61.3 2.9 6.6 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 2.9 16.3 17.1 129.1 73.6 47.4 2.7 6.4 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 10.4 17.2 22.0 220.6 87.5 63.5 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.9 16.3 16.3 130.6 73.8 46.8 2.6 6.4 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.9 20.5 23.2 221.2 86.9 53.5 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 26.7 48.7 33.1 243.1 89.6 69.8 6.7 12.9 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.9 17.7 16.4 144.8 76.6 49.0 2.6 6.1 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------