***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 3.2 10.1 8.8 98.2 64.7 42.5 3.3 6.3 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.2 10.4 8.5 102.5 65.4 43.4 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.6 11.7 9.2 101.7 65.6 44.9 3.7 7.0 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.6 12.0 8.7 87.1 61.9 40.5 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.4 8.3 9.0 95.3 63.9 42.7 2.4 5.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.3 8.1 9.3 80.6 58.0 39.5 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 3.4 11.5 8.8 104.2 66.4 44.7 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.0 14.0 10.3 94.7 63.2 45.8 3.8 8.4 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.8 9.7 10.2 99.4 65.0 44.2 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.1 10.0 11.0 94.5 63.2 44.3 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.3 7.8 8.6 90.3 62.3 43.0 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.8 8.0 8.3 89.4 61.4 43.6 2.8 5.5 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.2 9.2 9.1 86.7 61.2 40.9 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.8 13.4 11.0 89.4 62.3 46.3 4.2 8.6 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.2 7.8 7.4 80.8 59.9 36.3 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.4 6.7 8.5 85.4 60.5 40.6 2.6 4.8 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.6 9.2 8.3 102.1 65.7 44.3 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 3.2 10.2 11.1 87.4 60.4 43.9 2.8 6.6 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.2 11.5 8.9 103.6 66.1 44.6 3.2 6.5 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.1 11.8 12.7 95.7 63.1 44.9 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.9 10.5 9.7 104.7 66.6 44.9 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.4 11.2 9.0 100.3 65.8 45.4 3.5 6.8 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.3 10.9 9.3 95.5 64.5 45.2 3.2 6.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.9 11.4 10.2 90.1 61.8 45.1 3.6 7.4 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.9 10.2 9.8 101.0 65.9 43.6 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.8 9.0 8.2 90.3 61.8 41.2 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 3.1 9.3 9.1 94.0 63.2 41.8 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.1 7.3 8.2 83.0 60.5 38.5 2.2 4.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 5.5 15.1 11.3 86.1 59.6 44.4 4.9 10.6 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.6 8.4 8.5 98.7 64.5 43.8 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------