***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.7 10.7 7.5 96.5 64.8 44.0 2.6 5.9 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.8 8.1 6.3 95.5 64.6 44.6 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.8 11.8 7.0 94.3 64.1 46.2 3.4 7.1 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 8.2 22.4 8.5 95.4 64.7 46.2 7.6 14.2 23.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.7 16.6 8.6 95.8 64.2 45.5 5.6 10.6 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 5.2 22.0 12.9 135.0 74.6 52.1 4.9 9.7 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.6 10.2 6.8 103.4 67.0 44.3 2.7 5.6 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.9 22.4 10.9 107.7 67.5 48.1 8.6 14.3 21.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 5.0 12.8 8.1 86.8 61.3 44.3 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.6 17.8 9.6 92.4 62.7 45.7 7.2 12.5 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 6.3 19.0 9.4 107.5 67.9 46.7 6.1 11.2 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.5 18.6 10.4 116.7 70.3 48.2 5.6 10.2 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.5 20.1 11.6 131.6 73.8 50.4 5.1 9.6 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.4 16.2 8.6 89.9 62.4 48.0 7.4 11.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 4.4 15.7 7.1 94.1 64.6 41.6 4.4 9.1 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.4 16.4 10.5 120.6 71.4 49.0 4.4 8.4 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 1.8 8.0 6.9 113.6 69.4 46.0 1.8 3.9 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 6.3 14.2 9.6 85.0 59.5 45.1 6.4 10.9 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.2 8.2 6.1 89.6 62.6 44.8 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 6.5 17.1 12.5 99.9 64.0 48.1 6.6 11.6 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 5.3 13.9 7.6 88.3 61.8 43.1 5.4 9.8 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.5 8.7 7.0 105.9 67.3 46.5 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.8 10.5 6.3 88.0 61.8 45.8 4.5 7.7 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.2 14.4 8.1 85.1 60.0 45.4 6.1 10.8 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.9 15.1 8.2 91.6 63.7 44.2 5.2 9.8 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.4 19.0 11.3 136.9 75.0 50.6 4.1 8.2 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 3.5 13.7 8.0 97.2 64.9 43.3 3.6 7.9 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 6.0 19.4 8.8 104.9 67.2 46.2 6.0 11.3 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.9 22.7 10.2 88.1 60.2 46.2 9.8 17.1 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.6 8.0 6.5 93.0 63.9 44.7 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------