***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 47.3 44.0 36.8 88.0 54.6 47.0 24.9 39.4 57.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 40.9 38.9 34.3 92.5 56.5 48.0 21.7 33.6 48.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 49.1 49.3 40.3 96.3 58.4 49.8 28.6 42.0 57.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 64.8 64.3 42.9 92.6 57.8 48.7 37.8 55.1 75.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 48.0 48.0 42.9 95.3 58.4 51.0 26.1 39.8 56.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 26.8 48.3 49.1 100.5 59.8 50.4 27.3 39.7 54.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 25.6 42.6 33.7 89.5 55.5 47.1 25.2 37.9 53.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 93.4 95.6 59.1 122.2 70.3 60.9 45.9 65.0 87.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 46.7 50.9 46.9 103.8 62.2 54.0 26.8 39.7 55.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 53.7 63.0 57.7 114.1 66.6 57.7 32.7 46.2 62.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 46.5 51.3 47.2 106.1 63.0 54.9 28.6 40.3 54.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 46.5 54.3 48.6 113.5 66.3 57.4 27.8 39.9 54.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 25.7 49.3 48.7 103.5 62.1 54.4 25.6 38.2 53.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 62.9 69.4 54.7 104.7 62.3 53.7 34.8 52.8 74.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 41.0 44.3 40.1 100.9 62.3 50.3 19.0 32.1 49.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 41.8 43.3 45.1 99.7 60.0 52.1 22.6 34.5 49.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 42.0 39.7 32.6 91.1 55.9 48.3 22.9 34.8 49.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 58.2 67.0 60.9 111.9 65.4 56.4 35.3 50.4 67.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 46.0 45.5 36.4 94.7 57.7 48.9 26.2 38.8 54.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 84.0 87.1 71.6 127.2 72.6 63.7 46.0 61.2 78.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 51.1 53.4 42.8 98.2 60.0 51.9 28.2 43.0 60.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 44.4 44.1 35.9 94.5 57.6 50.2 24.5 37.3 53.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 45.2 45.8 39.9 96.0 58.6 49.6 26.2 38.4 52.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 58.3 63.3 51.6 104.1 61.9 52.5 31.9 48.9 69.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 53.3 47.2 39.6 82.8 52.4 45.7 30.3 44.8 62.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 53.8 52.3 49.1 119.1 68.7 59.1 22.8 34.7 49.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 51.6 44.8 37.7 83.9 52.3 45.2 27.1 42.6 61.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 44.2 47.1 44.0 101.1 61.5 50.6 23.5 36.3 52.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 89.0 104.8 64.1 115.8 67.3 58.6 57.9 78.9 102.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 41.5 38.5 35.1 90.9 55.6 47.1 21.8 33.9 49.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------