***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.7 14.3 0.0 49.4 48.9 10.7 11.7 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.7 14.0 -0.3 44.4 45.1 9.9 11.0 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.1 14.0 -0.3 45.5 45.9 12.3 13.4 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.5 11.7 -0.2 45.2 46.4 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.1 11.4 -0.2 45.3 46.6 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.3 9.9 -0.1 48.3 49.2 8.3 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.2 14.0 -0.3 45.1 45.6 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.2 10.0 0.0 49.6 49.9 4.1 5.2 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.2 11.8 -0.2 45.9 46.9 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.8 10.4 -0.2 45.7 47.0 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 9.7 10.6 11.1 -0.1 48.1 48.8 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.4 11.0 0.0 51.0 50.9 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 8.8 9.8 10.2 -0.2 46.6 47.6 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.0 11.0 11.7 -0.6 39.1 41.0 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 10.8 11.8 12.4 -0.1 47.5 48.0 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 10.2 11.3 10.9 -0.1 48.5 49.0 10.4 11.4 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 10.5 11.0 13.3 -0.6 39.3 41.5 10.6 11.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.4 9.8 -0.3 43.8 45.4 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.0 13.9 -0.3 44.2 44.8 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.7 8.3 -0.3 43.8 45.3 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.4 10.9 13.2 -0.2 46.9 47.4 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 9.4 9.8 13.1 -0.8 36.6 39.1 9.6 10.6 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.4 13.6 -0.3 43.9 44.5 9.7 10.8 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 9.9 10.6 11.7 -0.4 43.0 44.4 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.4 12.7 -0.1 47.8 48.1 10.4 11.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.0 10.6 -0.1 47.1 48.0 9.2 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.7 13.5 0.0 49.5 49.2 10.4 11.7 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.8 12.0 -0.1 47.2 47.8 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.4 9.3 -0.3 43.5 45.1 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.4 14.3 -0.2 46.1 46.3 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------