***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.3 14.0 0.8 61.4 58.1 9.8 10.7 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.6 13.7 0.7 61.0 57.5 9.9 11.0 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.6 13.8 0.7 61.0 57.7 12.1 13.0 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.1 11.3 0.5 57.8 55.6 7.5 8.6 9.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.4 11.1 0.5 58.8 56.5 8.7 9.8 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.7 9.7 0.8 64.4 60.8 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.6 13.6 0.7 60.1 56.8 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.9 9.8 0.8 65.0 60.3 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.3 11.6 0.6 60.3 57.5 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.1 10.2 0.7 62.0 58.2 9.6 10.5 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.6 10.8 0.6 61.5 58.3 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 10.2 9.9 10.7 0.7 63.8 59.8 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.0 10.1 9.9 0.5 59.3 57.2 8.6 9.6 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.4 11.5 0.4 57.6 55.4 10.3 11.1 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.3 12.0 0.5 59.2 56.3 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.5 10.5 0.6 60.2 57.8 10.1 10.9 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.4 13.0 0.5 57.9 55.1 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 9.8 10.1 9.7 0.6 61.7 57.8 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.6 13.7 0.7 61.9 58.1 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.4 8.2 0.6 61.5 58.1 5.0 5.8 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.1 12.9 0.6 60.4 57.5 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.5 13.0 0.5 58.4 55.4 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.9 11.2 13.4 0.7 62.2 58.5 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.7 10.9 11.6 0.6 60.7 57.4 9.6 10.4 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.8 12.3 0.6 60.4 57.5 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.2 10.2 0.5 58.6 56.2 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.3 13.1 0.8 61.4 58.2 10.0 11.4 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.8 11.6 0.5 59.2 56.5 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.4 9.2 0.6 61.0 57.5 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.9 13.9 0.7 61.4 57.9 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------