***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.5 12.5 0.9 61.9 58.7 8.6 9.7 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.5 12.3 0.9 61.9 58.9 8.3 9.6 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.6 12.3 0.8 61.4 58.3 10.8 11.8 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.9 9.8 0.5 58.1 55.9 6.1 7.3 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.4 9.6 0.6 58.7 56.6 7.6 8.8 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.5 8.3 7.8 0.3 55.3 54.9 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.6 12.2 0.8 61.3 58.5 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 4.7 4.3 8.3 0.8 62.1 59.9 2.7 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.6 10.2 0.7 60.3 57.9 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.2 8.8 0.7 60.9 58.8 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.8 9.3 0.6 59.3 57.2 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.6 9.1 0.7 60.3 58.3 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.9 8.3 0.3 54.5 54.2 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.1 10.7 10.2 0.6 59.8 57.9 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.5 10.5 0.6 59.4 56.7 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.3 8.9 0.4 56.7 55.3 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.5 11.7 0.7 59.8 57.8 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.1 8.3 0.7 61.0 59.2 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.6 12.3 0.9 62.5 59.3 8.6 9.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.2 6.6 0.7 59.8 59.0 3.6 4.6 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.1 11.5 0.7 60.6 57.9 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.5 11.7 0.7 60.2 58.1 7.9 8.9 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 8.1 10.1 11.9 0.9 63.0 59.7 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 8.3 10.1 10.2 0.7 61.1 58.7 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 10.2 10.5 10.9 0.7 60.4 57.8 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.0 8.7 0.4 55.5 54.7 7.8 8.7 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.5 11.0 11.7 0.9 62.0 58.9 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.9 10.0 0.5 58.5 56.0 7.3 8.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.9 8.2 7.7 0.7 60.9 59.6 6.4 7.5 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.0 12.5 0.9 62.0 58.9 8.9 10.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------