***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.7 13.3 -0.2 44.6 45.4 10.2 10.9 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 9.8 10.2 12.8 -0.5 37.6 39.9 9.9 10.8 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 12.2 12.7 13.0 -0.3 41.6 43.3 12.3 13.0 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.6 8.1 10.7 -0.4 40.5 42.0 7.8 8.6 9.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.4 10.7 -0.3 42.4 43.6 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 8.2 8.9 9.2 0.0 49.3 49.1 8.3 8.9 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 10.2 10.6 12.9 -0.5 38.7 40.7 10.3 11.0 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 5.1 4.7 9.2 -0.1 47.3 47.5 4.1 4.8 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.8 11.2 -0.1 46.1 46.5 10.3 10.9 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.4 9.7 -0.2 45.1 45.8 10.0 10.6 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.0 10.4 -0.2 45.4 45.9 9.5 10.1 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.9 10.1 -0.1 48.1 48.1 8.3 8.9 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 8.8 9.5 9.6 -0.1 46.8 47.2 8.9 9.6 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 10.5 10.7 11.0 -0.5 35.7 38.7 10.6 11.2 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.1 11.9 -0.1 48.5 48.0 10.6 11.2 11.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.2 10.8 10.2 -0.1 46.7 47.0 10.3 11.0 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 10.3 10.5 12.1 -0.7 32.7 36.0 10.5 11.1 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.5 9.1 9.1 -0.3 42.5 44.1 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 10.1 10.5 12.8 -0.5 38.9 41.0 10.2 10.9 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.9 5.4 7.4 -0.3 42.3 44.0 5.0 5.7 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.3 12.5 -0.2 44.3 45.1 9.8 10.5 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 9.3 9.5 12.2 -0.7 31.8 35.1 9.5 10.2 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 9.5 10.0 12.7 -0.4 40.9 42.6 9.6 10.4 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.8 10.2 11.0 -0.4 40.7 42.6 10.0 10.6 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.3 10.6 11.8 -0.3 42.3 43.6 10.2 10.9 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 9.1 9.6 9.7 -0.2 45.5 45.9 9.2 9.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.9 12.4 -0.2 44.2 45.2 10.2 11.2 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.2 11.2 -0.2 45.9 46.1 8.7 9.3 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.7 8.3 8.6 -0.3 43.0 44.6 7.8 8.6 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 10.3 10.8 13.1 -0.4 40.5 42.2 10.4 11.2 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------