***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 88 12 0 100 21.5 21.3 21.6 -3.2 17.3 19.3 23.1 24.7 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 90 10 0 100 21.8 21.2 21.3 -3.9 14.3 16.0 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 21.6 21.1 21.3 -3.7 15.2 17.3 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 14.4 14.0 19.3 -3.1 17.6 20.1 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 22.1 21.6 20.0 -3.4 16.9 19.3 23.5 25.1 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 20.9 21.0 18.3 -2.6 21.6 23.9 22.3 23.9 25.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 21.2 20.7 21.2 -3.8 14.1 15.8 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 85 15 0 100 10.5 10.1 17.9 -3.5 16.5 19.1 11.9 13.4 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 21.9 21.3 20.8 -3.4 16.8 19.3 23.1 24.7 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 21.5 21.0 18.9 -3.5 16.4 19.0 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 22.0 21.5 19.7 -3.4 16.8 19.2 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 83 17 0 100 21.0 20.7 19.1 -3.4 17.6 20.1 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 22.0 21.8 19.6 -3.1 19.0 21.2 23.3 24.9 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 97 3 0 100 21.7 21.1 19.4 -4.3 12.1 14.2 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 22.9 22.7 21.9 -2.5 20.7 23.2 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 22.7 22.4 19.9 -3.1 19.2 21.5 24.0 25.6 27.1 30 Nis 06700G01 99 1 0 100 20.7 20.0 20.4 -4.3 11.5 12.9 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 20.8 20.0 17.7 -3.9 14.3 16.9 22.1 23.5 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 88 12 0 100 21.7 21.2 21.4 -3.8 15.0 16.9 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 84 16 0 100 16.6 16.2 15.9 -3.6 16.5 19.2 18.1 19.6 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 21.9 21.4 21.2 -3.6 15.6 17.8 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 97 3 0 100 21.5 20.8 20.5 -4.3 11.6 13.2 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 21.9 21.5 21.3 -3.6 16.1 18.2 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 89 11 0 100 21.4 20.7 19.4 -4.1 13.2 15.5 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 88 12 0 100 21.6 21.3 20.3 -3.3 16.3 18.4 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 21.9 21.8 19.0 -3.1 19.7 21.9 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 21.5 21.2 20.9 -3.2 16.5 18.5 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 22.8 22.5 20.6 -2.8 19.4 22.0 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 16.1 15.4 16.8 -4.0 14.1 16.7 17.5 18.9 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 21.7 21.2 21.6 -3.6 15.7 17.6 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------