***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 23.4 24.3 23.8 1.4 66.1 60.8 21.5 22.9 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 23.8 24.6 23.8 1.3 65.6 60.2 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 24.0 24.8 23.7 1.3 64.9 59.9 21.9 23.5 24.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 16.8 17.0 21.6 0.8 59.1 56.0 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 24.4 24.9 22.0 1.1 61.8 57.9 22.3 23.9 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 23.5 24.0 20.5 1.0 61.9 58.8 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 23.4 24.1 23.6 1.3 65.2 60.0 21.4 22.8 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.2 14.1 20.9 1.4 66.3 61.0 11.0 12.6 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 24.1 24.8 22.5 1.3 63.9 59.4 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 23.7 24.6 21.4 1.3 65.0 60.1 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 24.1 24.9 21.9 1.3 64.5 59.9 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 23.4 24.3 21.9 1.4 65.8 60.9 21.1 22.8 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 24.4 25.0 21.4 1.1 62.6 59.1 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.0 24.7 22.0 1.2 63.1 58.9 21.6 23.4 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 24.0 24.1 21.9 0.8 59.1 56.0 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 25.0 25.5 21.7 1.1 62.7 58.9 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 23.0 23.3 22.9 0.9 60.6 56.8 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 22.9 23.8 20.7 1.3 64.5 59.7 20.7 22.4 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 23.6 24.5 23.9 1.4 66.1 60.7 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 19.0 19.8 18.7 1.2 63.7 58.9 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 24.0 24.7 23.1 1.2 63.6 59.0 21.9 23.5 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 23.8 24.2 22.9 0.9 60.8 57.0 21.6 23.2 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 23.8 24.8 23.7 1.5 66.5 61.1 21.7 23.2 24.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 23.7 24.6 22.1 1.3 64.1 59.5 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 23.4 24.0 21.9 1.1 62.4 58.2 21.6 23.0 24.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 24.0 24.6 21.4 1.1 62.3 59.0 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 23.5 24.3 22.8 1.3 65.4 60.3 21.6 23.0 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 24.2 24.4 22.0 0.8 59.6 56.4 22.0 23.5 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.4 19.2 19.8 1.2 64.0 59.2 16.1 17.8 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 23.6 24.5 24.0 1.4 66.5 60.9 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------