***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 21.8 22.8 22.7 -0.2 46.1 46.2 22.0 23.0 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 22.1 22.9 22.6 -0.5 42.0 43.2 22.3 23.3 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 22.2 23.0 22.6 -0.4 42.8 43.7 22.5 23.4 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 15.0 15.8 20.6 -0.5 42.2 43.5 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 22.5 23.4 21.0 -0.4 43.5 44.2 22.8 23.8 24.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 23.2 22.7 19.5 -0.1 48.3 47.7 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 21.7 22.5 22.4 -0.5 42.0 43.3 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 11.6 12.5 19.7 -0.1 47.7 47.2 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 22.3 23.2 21.6 -0.3 45.3 45.4 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 21.9 22.9 20.3 -0.2 46.0 45.8 22.1 23.1 24.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 22.5 23.4 20.9 -0.2 46.7 46.5 22.6 23.6 24.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 21.7 22.8 20.8 -0.1 48.9 48.2 21.9 22.9 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 24.3 23.7 20.5 -0.2 46.9 46.8 22.9 23.9 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 22.2 22.8 20.8 -0.7 38.7 40.3 22.5 23.4 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 22.6 23.4 21.5 -0.3 44.9 45.6 22.7 23.6 24.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 24.8 24.2 20.8 -0.2 47.0 46.9 23.4 24.4 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 21.2 21.6 21.7 -0.9 34.7 37.6 21.5 22.5 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 21.2 22.1 19.5 -0.4 43.2 43.8 21.5 22.4 23.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 21.9 22.7 22.7 -0.4 43.0 43.9 22.1 23.1 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 17.4 18.3 17.5 -0.4 43.5 44.1 17.7 18.6 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 22.3 23.1 22.1 -0.4 43.1 43.9 22.5 23.5 24.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 21.8 22.3 21.7 -0.9 34.8 37.5 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 22.1 22.9 22.5 -0.3 44.5 44.9 22.3 23.2 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 21.9 22.7 20.9 -0.5 41.2 42.2 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 21.9 22.7 21.0 -0.4 42.9 43.8 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 22.4 23.4 20.4 -0.2 46.3 46.5 22.6 23.6 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 21.9 22.8 21.8 -0.3 45.3 45.6 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 22.6 23.4 21.2 -0.3 44.5 45.2 22.8 23.7 24.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 16.7 17.5 18.6 -0.5 42.2 43.0 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 21.9 22.8 22.8 -0.3 44.3 45.0 22.1 23.1 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------