***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 2.2 8.8 8.1 85.0 61.2 38.7 2.5 5.6 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.1 7.8 7.3 74.5 56.6 39.6 3.0 6.2 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.5 9.7 8.7 90.7 62.4 42.0 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.8 15.0 12.0 108.3 68.7 50.2 3.2 7.4 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.8 11.6 12.8 114.7 69.6 53.8 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.6 12.3 14.8 138.0 74.9 53.2 2.7 5.2 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.2 8.0 7.0 74.1 56.2 38.4 2.6 6.2 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.6 15.7 11.4 97.5 63.9 46.6 4.4 9.4 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.8 9.3 11.5 107.4 67.3 49.8 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.5 9.4 11.5 92.1 62.3 46.3 3.3 6.4 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.6 10.1 10.5 105.6 67.1 47.5 2.4 5.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.1 11.4 10.9 115.3 69.4 47.9 3.2 6.2 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 2.3 9.7 12.3 118.2 70.1 48.3 2.3 4.7 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.8 9.6 9.0 74.5 54.5 39.4 3.3 7.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.0 8.6 12.3 117.2 70.8 50.9 1.5 3.7 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.7 11.3 11.7 114.4 69.8 50.0 2.3 5.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.9 7.5 6.7 66.4 53.2 34.2 2.8 6.5 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.6 9.2 11.9 85.5 59.8 45.9 3.0 6.4 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.6 9.4 7.4 76.5 56.8 39.0 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.7 16.2 14.8 100.9 64.2 51.3 4.9 9.8 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.1 9.7 9.4 95.5 64.1 44.6 3.1 6.0 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.1 8.4 7.0 67.8 52.7 36.0 3.6 7.7 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 2.4 7.0 7.7 76.6 55.6 36.2 2.5 5.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 2.8 8.8 10.0 83.9 59.4 42.7 2.4 5.9 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.4 10.0 10.4 93.0 63.2 44.9 2.7 6.1 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.5 12.1 15.2 164.5 80.0 57.2 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 3.1 9.2 8.9 84.1 60.2 41.0 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.2 8.5 12.4 114.0 70.0 50.5 1.9 4.0 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.1 16.9 11.9 87.6 60.4 45.4 5.9 11.9 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.4 8.8 7.7 79.6 58.6 41.1 3.1 6.4 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------