***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 4.6 15.7 9.4 98.0 64.6 39.7 4.8 9.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 4.0 14.3 9.6 98.0 64.6 41.6 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 4.1 13.9 9.4 97.1 63.8 41.7 4.4 8.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.2 16.0 10.8 107.1 68.0 44.1 4.2 8.6 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.8 12.8 10.3 97.8 64.8 44.6 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.9 11.5 11.8 96.8 64.8 45.7 3.4 7.0 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 4.4 15.0 10.1 105.0 66.5 45.1 4.6 8.8 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.2 21.1 11.3 104.3 66.6 46.2 6.1 12.1 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.7 14.1 9.8 90.6 62.0 42.2 4.6 9.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.1 13.9 11.0 94.9 63.5 43.7 5.2 9.4 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.3 13.6 9.1 105.9 67.2 43.5 4.5 8.1 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.5 14.0 9.0 109.8 68.2 45.4 4.6 8.3 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.4 14.4 9.9 107.6 67.7 46.5 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 5.1 18.8 12.5 99.2 64.2 42.1 5.3 11.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.0 13.7 11.2 120.1 71.7 46.0 2.8 6.2 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.2 11.4 9.7 110.4 68.4 46.0 3.0 6.0 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 4.0 15.0 11.2 112.3 68.9 44.8 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.9 17.7 13.5 101.6 64.6 46.6 5.6 10.9 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 4.3 14.3 9.5 97.4 64.2 40.6 4.8 9.1 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.4 22.8 17.7 117.6 69.7 52.1 6.8 12.5 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 4.2 15.9 8.6 91.1 62.4 39.6 4.6 9.9 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 4.1 15.7 11.3 104.0 66.4 43.0 4.4 9.0 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.2 13.6 9.7 98.3 64.2 40.4 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.7 17.0 11.7 98.8 64.1 43.4 4.4 9.7 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 5.2 17.6 11.3 106.1 67.3 45.3 4.9 9.8 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.4 13.5 7.9 99.0 65.5 45.5 4.4 8.2 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.7 17.5 11.1 102.9 66.0 43.0 4.4 9.6 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.4 12.5 10.8 110.9 69.3 45.1 3.3 6.5 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.8 26.2 14.7 106.3 66.3 47.8 8.4 15.7 26.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 3.8 13.0 9.4 95.7 63.6 41.4 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------