***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 2.7 9.0 8.1 97.5 63.6 43.7 2.8 5.6 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.1 8.5 8.6 99.8 64.6 47.4 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.0 11.8 8.5 97.9 64.0 47.0 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.5 20.1 8.5 86.4 62.1 45.4 6.7 13.4 22.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.3 13.9 8.4 85.5 61.4 44.7 5.0 9.6 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 4.2 16.2 11.1 104.7 67.1 47.7 3.9 8.5 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.5 10.6 8.8 101.3 65.1 48.5 2.8 6.2 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 5.9 14.1 8.7 70.7 55.6 42.1 6.3 11.9 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 5.0 11.5 8.4 82.0 60.1 43.5 4.9 8.6 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.7 13.2 9.3 76.2 57.7 43.5 5.7 10.4 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 5.1 13.5 7.1 76.8 58.4 42.0 5.5 10.3 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 3.5 10.2 7.0 74.3 56.9 40.5 3.9 7.9 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.6 12.7 8.9 95.9 64.7 46.0 3.5 7.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.4 16.7 11.9 106.0 66.8 51.3 5.9 10.3 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.4 13.0 7.5 76.8 59.7 42.4 4.0 8.8 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 2.9 9.6 7.7 85.9 61.7 44.2 2.9 6.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.7 7.0 8.0 88.1 60.7 44.3 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.5 12.0 11.7 82.7 59.4 47.0 5.4 9.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.6 9.1 8.5 100.6 65.0 47.0 3.4 6.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.9 11.7 13.3 75.8 56.8 46.5 5.4 9.7 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.0 13.4 8.2 93.5 63.4 44.5 4.6 8.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.8 7.8 8.0 87.1 60.7 43.5 2.5 5.2 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.1 10.7 8.8 102.1 65.5 47.2 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.4 13.5 10.5 91.4 62.3 47.9 5.1 9.3 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.7 13.4 9.4 92.2 63.0 45.2 4.0 8.4 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.3 12.5 7.9 93.4 63.3 44.1 3.2 7.3 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.5 11.3 9.3 95.5 63.6 45.2 3.2 6.9 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 5.2 14.6 7.8 80.8 60.6 44.0 4.8 10.0 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.2 19.5 12.7 85.1 60.2 48.3 8.4 14.8 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.4 8.7 102.6 65.5 48.0 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------