***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 24.2 42.8 31.8 89.6 55.8 47.8 24.0 37.5 54.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 23.0 37.2 33.0 85.5 53.7 47.5 22.8 34.4 48.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 48.9 45.2 32.4 88.4 54.6 48.1 28.9 41.5 56.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 35.9 65.5 40.1 97.3 60.2 51.1 35.5 52.9 73.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 46.2 45.7 39.6 94.2 57.7 50.3 25.3 38.6 54.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 43.7 46.0 46.9 100.0 61.2 53.2 25.5 37.0 50.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 24.7 41.0 33.8 88.7 54.7 48.2 24.1 36.9 52.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 72.3 64.7 39.5 84.7 52.0 47.0 45.2 62.4 81.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 25.3 40.9 37.1 87.7 54.1 47.4 24.9 37.4 52.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 51.6 44.9 40.2 83.5 50.8 45.9 31.6 44.4 59.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 45.8 43.3 33.3 88.9 55.3 48.4 27.8 39.3 52.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 25.3 41.8 33.1 90.5 56.2 49.2 25.5 37.0 50.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 42.7 44.6 38.6 96.5 59.6 51.8 24.5 36.6 50.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 64.4 55.7 42.0 87.3 52.1 47.1 35.3 53.4 74.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 19.9 45.1 39.5 99.8 62.3 52.0 19.0 32.3 49.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 39.3 39.2 35.9 94.1 58.4 50.4 22.0 32.9 45.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 23.4 37.5 34.1 85.1 53.8 47.0 23.1 34.7 48.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 56.1 49.0 46.7 85.8 50.7 46.4 34.6 48.2 64.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 26.7 41.6 32.4 85.3 53.4 47.0 27.5 39.0 52.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 66.4 63.0 58.7 92.0 54.0 49.6 46.3 59.5 74.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 27.6 46.8 32.5 87.8 54.4 47.2 28.6 42.5 59.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 24.6 38.8 34.2 82.4 51.1 44.7 25.1 37.8 53.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 27.1 41.7 32.7 85.9 53.1 46.5 27.6 39.5 53.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 56.1 47.9 39.7 85.9 51.5 46.6 30.0 46.3 65.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 30.5 51.8 38.9 94.1 57.9 49.8 30.3 44.1 60.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 40.9 47.7 37.4 107.2 64.6 56.1 21.4 33.8 49.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 27.1 46.8 36.5 90.3 55.9 48.2 26.6 41.0 58.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 23.1 44.4 39.3 96.1 60.1 50.4 23.1 35.5 50.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 55.4 78.0 50.0 88.2 51.8 47.6 55.4 75.8 99.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 22.6 36.9 32.7 86.6 53.9 47.5 22.6 34.0 47.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------