***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 12.7 13.6 16.9 2.3 84.8 80.4 10.3 11.3 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 12.8 13.4 16.0 1.7 79.7 75.0 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 15.1 15.7 16.6 1.8 81.3 76.8 12.6 13.7 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 11.1 12.0 14.0 2.0 83.2 79.4 8.2 9.4 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 11.7 12.4 14.9 1.9 82.1 78.1 9.0 10.1 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 10.9 11.7 12.3 2.2 85.6 82.6 8.5 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 12.8 13.3 16.0 1.7 79.2 74.6 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 7.1 8.4 12.6 2.2 86.9 82.3 4.0 5.3 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 12.8 13.5 14.8 1.7 80.9 76.3 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 12.6 13.5 13.2 2.0 84.4 79.3 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 12.1 12.8 14.5 1.7 81.2 77.1 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 10.7 11.6 13.7 2.2 85.9 82.0 8.3 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 11.3 11.6 12.8 1.4 74.6 71.7 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 13.2 14.1 14.6 1.9 83.7 78.3 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 13.4 14.2 16.2 2.0 84.1 80.4 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 12.9 13.4 13.7 1.6 78.4 75.0 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 13.0 13.6 15.5 1.6 78.8 73.9 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 11.6 12.6 12.7 2.0 85.5 80.3 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 12.8 13.3 16.1 1.7 79.4 74.9 10.6 11.6 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 7.9 9.0 11.1 2.3 86.9 82.9 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 12.5 13.3 16.0 1.9 83.2 78.4 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 12.1 12.7 15.8 1.6 78.7 73.6 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 12.3 12.9 16.1 1.7 79.2 75.1 9.9 11.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 12.7 13.6 14.6 1.8 83.1 77.4 10.5 11.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 12.9 13.8 16.3 2.3 85.0 80.7 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 11.6 12.2 12.3 1.8 80.4 77.4 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 13.6 14.8 16.5 2.3 85.1 80.6 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 11.2 11.9 14.5 1.9 82.6 79.1 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 10.9 11.9 12.0 2.0 84.9 80.0 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 13.2 13.8 16.4 1.8 80.6 76.1 10.8 11.8 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------