***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 10.3 12.2 14.4 0.5 58.2 52.9 10.7 11.7 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 9.3 11.4 13.8 0.3 55.3 50.5 9.9 11.0 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 11.8 13.7 14.3 0.3 54.6 50.5 12.3 13.4 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 7.2 9.5 11.7 0.5 59.5 54.6 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 8.8 10.8 12.1 0.3 54.7 51.8 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 10.6 10.1 10.1 0.6 61.4 56.6 8.3 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 10.1 11.8 13.9 0.4 56.2 51.6 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 3.6 5.5 9.9 0.2 54.4 51.5 4.1 5.2 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 10.1 11.6 12.2 0.2 53.9 51.0 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 9.6 11.3 10.6 0.3 54.7 51.4 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 9.4 10.8 11.6 0.1 52.8 50.6 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 8.0 9.5 10.7 0.2 53.6 51.5 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 8.5 10.0 10.2 0.0 50.1 50.3 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 10.1 11.6 11.8 0.0 50.7 49.1 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 10.7 12.7 13.6 0.7 63.9 57.0 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 9.9 11.6 11.0 0.2 53.6 51.7 10.4 11.4 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 10.2 11.8 13.4 0.3 55.2 50.2 10.6 11.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 8.3 9.9 9.8 0.1 51.7 49.9 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 9.8 11.6 13.8 0.3 54.4 50.0 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 4.6 6.0 8.0 0.0 50.8 49.8 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 9.7 11.4 13.5 0.3 55.8 52.0 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 9.1 10.8 13.6 0.2 54.3 49.8 9.6 10.6 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 9.1 10.9 13.8 0.1 52.5 49.3 9.7 10.8 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 9.6 11.1 11.9 0.1 52.5 49.7 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 9.9 12.1 13.4 0.5 58.8 53.9 10.4 11.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 8.9 10.3 9.9 0.2 53.1 52.2 9.2 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 9.9 12.4 13.9 0.6 59.4 54.0 10.4 11.7 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 8.5 10.6 12.1 0.6 61.4 55.6 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 7.2 8.9 9.2 0.0 50.1 49.2 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 10.1 11.9 14.1 0.3 55.5 51.0 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------