***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.3 13.7 0.8 61.1 57.2 9.8 10.7 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.5 13.1 0.5 58.2 55.2 9.9 11.0 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.5 13.7 0.5 58.7 55.9 12.1 13.0 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.0 9.5 11.1 0.8 63.6 60.4 7.5 8.6 9.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.3 11.1 0.5 58.3 56.6 8.7 9.8 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.2 9.6 9.6 0.7 62.6 60.1 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.5 13.2 0.6 58.6 55.6 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.6 9.4 0.6 60.1 58.2 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.1 11.2 0.4 57.3 55.8 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.9 9.9 0.5 59.1 57.3 9.6 10.5 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.4 10.6 0.4 57.8 56.4 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.5 9.6 9.9 0.5 58.0 56.7 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.0 9.2 0.4 57.1 56.1 8.6 9.6 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.5 11.3 0.5 57.7 55.9 10.3 11.1 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.6 12.3 0.8 64.4 60.8 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.4 10.0 0.5 59.0 57.3 10.1 10.9 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.4 12.8 0.5 57.6 55.0 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.8 10.0 9.1 0.5 59.3 57.6 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.4 13.2 0.5 57.9 55.3 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.4 7.5 0.7 61.6 59.5 5.0 5.8 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.9 11.0 12.7 0.6 58.9 56.5 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.5 12.7 0.5 57.3 55.3 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.9 13.1 0.4 57.2 55.2 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.8 11.0 0.5 58.0 56.2 9.6 10.4 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.6 12.0 12.5 0.8 62.7 59.3 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.3 9.2 0.6 59.6 58.1 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.3 13.1 0.8 62.0 58.2 10.0 11.4 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.7 10.1 11.3 0.8 63.7 60.6 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.3 8.7 0.5 59.3 57.7 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.7 13.4 0.6 58.7 55.6 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------