***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.0 12.3 0.3 54.7 53.7 8.6 9.7 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.8 11.7 0.2 52.8 51.8 8.3 9.6 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.1 12.3 0.2 53.5 52.9 10.8 11.8 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.8 9.6 0.4 56.3 55.3 6.1 7.3 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.1 9.8 0.3 54.5 54.2 7.6 8.8 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.5 8.3 0.5 58.3 56.9 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.0 11.8 0.2 53.1 51.9 8.7 9.8 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.0 3.9 8.1 0.3 54.7 54.8 2.7 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.3 10.1 0.3 55.0 54.7 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.9 8.7 0.4 55.6 55.4 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.5 9.3 0.3 54.7 54.5 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.3 8.7 0.3 54.6 54.5 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.1 8.9 8.1 0.3 54.9 54.4 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.4 10.0 0.2 53.6 53.5 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.3 10.9 0.4 56.5 55.3 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.3 8.8 0.4 55.9 55.2 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.1 11.5 0.3 53.7 52.1 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.8 8.8 8.0 0.4 55.8 55.9 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.2 9.9 11.8 0.2 52.8 51.9 8.6 9.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.9 6.3 0.3 54.4 54.9 3.6 4.6 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.7 11.4 0.3 54.1 53.8 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.3 9.2 11.4 0.2 53.6 52.2 7.9 8.9 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.7 9.5 11.8 0.2 52.9 52.4 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.7 9.8 0.3 54.7 54.7 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.1 11.0 0.4 55.0 54.2 8.5 9.8 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.1 8.1 0.4 56.3 55.6 7.8 8.7 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.5 11.7 0.4 55.5 54.2 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.8 8.8 9.9 0.4 56.8 55.6 7.3 8.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 7.9 7.7 7.5 0.3 54.2 54.8 6.4 7.5 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 10.6 10.4 12.0 0.2 53.1 52.1 8.9 10.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------