***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 27.0 28.1 27.3 2.6 83.3 79.8 23.1 24.7 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 26.6 27.2 26.8 2.0 77.3 73.9 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 26.5 27.1 26.9 2.0 76.2 73.1 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 20.1 21.6 24.5 2.9 86.4 82.7 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 27.2 27.6 25.4 2.1 76.4 73.6 23.5 25.1 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 26.5 27.7 24.1 3.1 84.8 82.3 22.3 23.9 25.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 26.4 27.3 26.9 2.3 80.5 77.0 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 15.5 15.8 23.4 2.2 75.3 73.2 11.9 13.4 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 26.6 27.0 26.1 1.9 74.3 71.9 23.1 24.7 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 26.4 26.8 24.2 2.2 76.4 73.9 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 26.7 27.0 25.8 2.0 74.0 71.6 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 26.0 26.4 24.7 2.1 74.9 72.9 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 27.0 27.2 25.5 2.0 73.9 71.7 23.3 24.9 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 26.2 26.7 25.5 2.0 75.1 72.3 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 27.5 28.6 27.7 2.8 85.5 82.1 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 27.8 28.3 25.6 2.3 77.6 75.0 24.0 25.6 27.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 25.8 26.4 26.3 2.1 77.8 74.5 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 25.5 25.8 23.3 2.2 75.7 73.2 22.1 23.5 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 26.2 26.8 26.9 2.0 76.4 73.2 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 21.8 22.2 21.5 2.2 76.3 74.3 18.1 19.6 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 26.8 27.5 27.0 2.3 79.2 76.1 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 26.2 26.8 26.2 2.1 77.4 74.2 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 26.3 26.8 26.9 2.0 75.4 72.5 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 26.1 26.5 25.6 2.1 75.4 72.6 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 26.9 27.7 26.0 2.4 80.9 77.8 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 26.9 27.4 24.5 2.5 78.3 76.3 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 26.8 27.8 26.7 2.6 83.6 80.1 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 27.6 28.9 26.0 3.0 86.5 83.0 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 20.7 20.9 22.4 1.9 73.0 70.9 17.5 18.9 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 26.5 27.1 26.9 2.1 78.3 74.8 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------