***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 21.1 23.8 24.1 0.5 56.7 53.5 21.5 23.1 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 21.1 23.7 23.9 0.3 53.3 51.2 21.7 23.4 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 21.5 23.7 24.1 0.1 51.5 50.5 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 14.8 18.3 22.0 1.1 64.8 59.1 15.1 16.8 18.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 22.2 24.6 22.6 0.3 54.3 52.7 22.5 24.2 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 21.6 24.5 21.0 0.9 60.9 57.1 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 20.9 23.7 24.0 0.5 56.8 53.0 21.4 23.0 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 11.5 13.5 21.0 0.3 53.6 51.8 11.8 13.3 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 21.9 24.1 23.1 0.2 52.6 51.6 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 21.7 24.2 21.8 0.4 55.5 53.1 22.0 23.7 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 22.2 24.3 22.9 0.2 52.6 51.7 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 21.5 23.8 22.2 0.2 52.2 51.3 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 22.6 24.8 22.3 0.1 51.8 51.3 23.0 24.6 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 21.3 24.0 22.8 0.3 54.2 51.7 21.8 23.5 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 22.6 25.5 24.2 1.1 64.6 58.7 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 23.0 25.5 22.6 0.4 55.3 53.5 23.4 25.0 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 20.3 23.1 23.7 0.5 56.5 52.8 20.8 22.5 24.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 20.8 23.3 21.0 0.4 55.3 52.5 21.2 22.8 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 20.8 23.4 24.0 0.2 52.4 50.8 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 17.4 19.5 19.0 0.3 53.8 51.3 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 22.0 24.2 23.8 0.3 54.1 52.2 22.3 23.9 25.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 21.0 23.9 23.7 0.5 57.1 53.2 21.4 23.2 24.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 21.0 23.5 24.1 0.2 52.3 50.8 21.6 23.3 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 21.3 23.8 22.8 0.3 53.9 51.7 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 21.6 24.1 22.8 0.5 56.9 53.9 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 22.5 25.1 22.0 0.5 56.2 53.5 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 21.4 24.1 23.5 0.6 58.4 54.5 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 22.5 25.8 23.0 1.2 65.4 59.5 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 16.3 18.7 20.1 0.2 52.1 50.3 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 21.0 23.5 24.0 0.3 53.3 51.3 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------