***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 23.3 23.9 23.9 0.9 65.3 60.6 22.0 23.0 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 23.6 23.8 23.6 0.6 60.2 56.8 22.3 23.3 24.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 23.7 23.9 23.9 0.5 59.4 56.4 22.5 23.4 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 17.4 17.6 21.7 1.2 71.6 66.1 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 24.1 24.3 22.2 0.6 59.9 57.1 22.8 23.8 24.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 23.1 24.0 20.7 1.1 70.1 65.5 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 23.3 23.7 23.7 0.8 64.7 59.9 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.1 20.8 0.5 59.0 56.3 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 23.8 23.9 22.7 0.5 58.7 56.3 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 23.5 23.8 21.5 0.7 61.6 58.4 22.1 23.1 24.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 23.9 24.0 22.4 0.4 57.6 55.3 22.6 23.6 24.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 23.2 23.3 21.9 0.4 57.0 54.8 21.9 22.9 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 24.2 24.3 21.8 0.4 57.8 55.4 22.9 23.9 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 23.8 24.1 22.5 0.6 60.8 57.6 22.5 23.4 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 24.6 24.7 23.5 1.2 71.2 66.1 22.7 23.6 24.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 24.8 25.1 22.2 0.7 61.8 58.5 23.4 24.4 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 22.8 23.1 23.3 0.7 63.0 58.7 21.5 22.5 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 22.8 23.1 20.8 0.7 61.6 58.3 21.5 22.4 23.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 23.4 23.5 23.8 0.5 58.9 56.0 22.1 23.1 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 19.0 19.2 18.7 0.5 60.1 57.1 17.7 18.6 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 23.8 24.1 23.5 0.7 62.0 58.5 22.5 23.5 24.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 23.5 23.8 23.3 0.7 62.2 58.2 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 23.6 23.7 23.9 0.5 58.7 56.1 22.3 23.2 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 23.5 23.8 22.5 0.6 61.1 57.8 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 23.4 23.9 22.4 0.8 65.2 60.7 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 24.0 24.4 21.6 0.7 62.7 59.3 22.6 23.6 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 23.4 24.0 23.3 1.0 67.5 62.3 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 24.8 25.0 22.5 1.3 72.4 66.9 22.8 23.7 24.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.4 19.9 0.4 57.8 55.5 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 23.4 23.7 23.8 0.6 60.8 57.2 22.1 23.1 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------