***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 2.3 7.6 7.9 79.8 57.6 37.8 2.5 5.6 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 2.6 8.1 8.0 79.0 57.6 38.1 3.0 6.2 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 2.6 8.5 8.2 83.2 58.8 38.9 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 3.0 6.7 6.1 54.1 48.0 30.6 3.2 7.4 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 2.2 6.6 7.7 69.0 54.6 34.4 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 2.0 3.9 6.1 48.0 42.9 28.7 2.7 5.2 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.6 7.5 7.4 70.8 54.7 36.2 2.6 6.2 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 3.8 9.8 9.6 64.5 51.0 35.4 4.4 9.4 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 2.2 5.5 7.3 67.0 53.0 34.6 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 3.1 6.9 9.8 67.7 52.5 35.8 3.3 6.4 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 2.1 6.0 7.6 67.0 53.7 34.0 2.4 5.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 2.7 6.5 7.8 64.3 51.9 34.1 3.2 6.2 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 1.9 4.8 7.3 58.1 50.0 33.0 2.3 4.7 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.0 10.8 11.0 80.8 57.4 42.3 3.3 7.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 1.3 3.4 4.3 47.9 47.7 26.9 1.5 3.7 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 2.0 5.3 6.9 59.6 50.6 32.8 2.3 5.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 2.6 9.5 8.5 82.7 59.2 39.1 2.8 6.5 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.3 6.3 10.2 64.9 49.7 37.4 3.0 6.4 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 3.1 10.3 8.5 85.0 59.6 39.5 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.9 9.6 11.6 66.3 49.0 38.7 4.9 9.8 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 2.7 7.4 7.4 75.3 56.0 36.4 3.1 6.0 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 3.5 11.1 9.1 87.1 60.3 39.6 3.6 7.7 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.6 8.0 8.5 84.8 59.3 40.6 2.5 5.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 2.8 7.7 9.4 78.8 56.3 39.6 2.4 5.9 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 2.3 7.6 7.8 73.0 55.8 35.5 2.7 6.1 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 1.7 3.4 5.7 45.9 43.4 28.9 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 2.8 8.1 7.9 75.2 56.1 36.5 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 1.6 3.6 5.4 50.9 47.3 28.0 1.9 4.0 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.2 12.4 11.3 69.7 51.5 40.1 5.9 11.9 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 2.8 8.1 7.8 76.3 56.4 37.6 3.1 6.4 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------