***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 4.4 21.3 14.3 132.1 73.8 46.2 4.8 9.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.7 16.8 11.9 115.4 69.8 43.5 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.8 17.0 12.6 117.1 69.8 46.5 4.4 8.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.4 14.0 12.9 93.8 64.1 42.5 4.2 8.6 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.8 12.5 11.4 96.4 64.2 44.1 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.5 8.3 10.4 72.2 55.1 40.4 3.4 7.0 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.1 18.6 13.2 129.2 73.3 48.1 4.6 8.8 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.6 15.4 9.6 77.9 57.1 42.9 6.1 12.1 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.9 14.9 11.2 96.3 63.7 45.1 4.6 9.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.5 12.9 11.0 87.0 60.9 45.5 5.2 9.4 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.5 10.9 10.0 85.2 59.7 42.8 4.5 8.1 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.5 9.7 7.9 72.1 55.3 39.5 4.6 8.3 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 4.1 9.5 8.7 67.2 54.4 38.6 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.7 14.8 11.2 79.7 57.6 41.8 5.3 11.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.9 10.9 12.3 94.2 65.6 41.2 2.8 6.2 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.1 8.1 9.7 78.3 58.3 41.3 3.0 6.0 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.5 14.3 11.3 104.8 67.3 44.7 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 6.1 15.6 12.4 90.1 60.7 46.1 5.6 10.9 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.8 15.7 11.1 106.7 67.2 42.1 4.8 9.1 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 6.9 16.1 12.8 86.7 58.1 45.2 6.8 12.5 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 5.2 18.3 12.2 105.0 66.4 45.1 4.6 9.9 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.4 14.0 10.0 89.6 62.7 41.9 4.4 9.0 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 4.2 13.6 10.5 97.5 64.1 42.4 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.1 14.4 11.7 87.6 59.8 43.4 4.4 9.7 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 5.0 21.4 16.5 129.7 73.3 46.4 4.9 9.8 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.6 10.2 9.1 74.1 56.4 42.9 4.4 8.2 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 4.5 23.9 16.2 134.8 74.4 46.9 4.4 9.6 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.5 9.9 11.0 84.9 62.2 41.1 3.3 6.5 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.5 21.4 12.9 89.0 59.7 45.5 8.4 15.7 26.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.5 17.3 13.0 126.6 72.5 45.5 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------