***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.9 12.5 10.8 102.2 66.9 51.6 3.4 6.9 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.0 9.6 9.6 97.2 65.1 50.3 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.4 11.6 10.5 97.4 65.0 50.0 4.0 7.3 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.5 15.8 12.6 107.2 68.1 50.5 4.0 8.3 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.3 10.0 11.1 101.5 66.4 48.8 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.7 8.6 12.8 103.8 66.9 50.0 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.4 8.8 9.2 94.7 64.3 50.4 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.5 17.4 12.1 105.3 67.2 49.3 5.1 9.9 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.0 9.2 10.7 94.2 64.3 48.2 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.5 11.4 11.8 96.0 64.5 47.9 3.3 6.7 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 6.5 8.3 10.5 103.9 67.0 48.5 2.3 4.7 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.8 9.6 10.6 108.6 68.3 49.1 2.6 5.1 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.1 10.9 11.6 107.1 68.2 50.4 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.5 13.5 13.1 93.8 63.7 51.3 3.8 8.0 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.6 10.9 12.6 117.0 70.9 50.4 2.4 5.2 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.9 9.6 11.0 105.8 67.6 49.6 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.8 9.0 10.4 106.6 67.3 53.7 2.3 4.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.1 12.7 12.8 95.2 63.7 49.3 3.4 7.5 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.2 10.0 10.0 98.7 65.4 50.1 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.7 14.7 15.6 106.4 66.9 52.1 2.9 7.2 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.5 10.2 10.5 95.1 64.5 49.1 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.4 10.5 12.0 113.6 69.1 53.1 2.8 5.5 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.0 11.9 10.4 96.9 64.6 50.2 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.1 11.8 11.9 93.2 63.5 50.3 3.5 7.3 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.0 12.1 12.2 103.5 67.2 51.4 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.0 11.4 12.0 121.1 71.6 50.5 2.7 5.4 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.8 11.7 11.6 104.4 67.6 52.6 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.4 9.9 12.3 112.0 69.3 49.7 2.2 4.8 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.5 19.6 13.6 97.9 64.2 50.5 5.5 11.6 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.8 8.2 9.7 94.6 64.6 50.1 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------