***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.7 12.0 14.4 125.5 72.4 55.2 2.8 5.6 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.0 10.8 13.2 124.2 72.1 57.2 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.2 14.6 13.5 118.1 70.7 54.8 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 26.9 35.1 18.5 156.9 78.7 59.0 6.7 13.4 22.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.4 22.6 15.7 145.3 76.5 56.0 5.0 9.6 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 4.6 21.5 15.5 137.2 74.9 55.7 3.9 8.5 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.5 13.2 13.0 119.2 71.0 55.7 2.8 6.2 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 16.0 24.4 15.8 131.0 73.3 56.7 6.3 11.9 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 5.1 17.6 15.5 138.7 75.2 54.9 4.9 8.6 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.9 21.4 16.4 132.1 73.6 55.3 5.7 10.4 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 5.6 22.2 14.0 135.8 74.5 54.8 5.5 10.3 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.4 18.6 13.6 135.1 74.3 56.7 3.9 7.9 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.9 18.4 14.7 138.8 75.2 55.8 3.5 7.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.3 18.3 16.9 116.0 70.1 55.6 5.9 10.3 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.8 27.9 17.8 160.3 79.3 56.3 4.0 8.8 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.3 15.8 14.4 139.2 75.3 56.0 2.9 6.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.7 9.2 12.5 110.7 68.7 55.4 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.8 17.0 17.8 126.8 72.3 55.5 5.4 9.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.6 11.0 13.3 123.4 71.9 57.0 3.4 6.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.3 18.6 21.0 130.3 73.1 57.9 5.4 9.7 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.8 18.7 14.6 135.2 74.5 55.9 4.6 8.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.5 10.1 12.9 109.2 68.2 55.2 2.5 5.2 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.9 12.1 13.3 116.0 70.1 55.7 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.5 17.6 15.8 120.1 70.9 54.7 5.1 9.3 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.8 21.4 17.2 144.2 76.4 58.2 4.0 8.4 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.0 22.0 15.5 151.4 77.8 56.7 3.2 7.3 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.7 16.2 15.6 132.8 74.0 56.2 3.2 6.9 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.3 27.5 17.3 155.8 78.5 57.6 4.8 10.0 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.9 27.4 18.7 126.3 72.2 55.8 8.4 14.8 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.7 11.6 13.3 122.3 71.7 56.5 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------