***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 45.1 53.4 47.3 110.9 65.3 54.3 24.0 37.5 54.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 23.2 45.1 42.8 104.3 62.6 54.3 22.8 34.4 48.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 48.6 52.3 44.8 104.6 62.2 53.7 28.9 41.5 56.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 35.3 67.3 50.1 103.0 61.5 52.0 35.5 52.9 73.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 46.2 49.3 45.9 102.7 61.2 52.2 25.3 38.6 54.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 24.2 38.6 44.9 88.4 52.2 45.6 25.5 37.0 50.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 44.7 48.7 42.8 103.7 62.5 53.9 24.1 36.9 52.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 71.9 68.2 47.2 92.8 55.2 48.3 45.2 62.4 81.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 44.7 45.7 44.7 99.2 59.4 50.9 24.9 37.4 52.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 51.6 49.7 48.9 94.6 56.3 49.2 31.6 44.4 59.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 45.8 45.5 42.2 96.7 57.9 49.6 27.8 39.3 52.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 43.7 41.4 39.9 93.0 55.8 48.2 25.5 37.0 50.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 24.5 40.0 42.2 90.2 54.4 47.1 24.5 36.6 50.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 35.8 59.4 52.2 92.9 55.2 49.6 35.3 53.4 74.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 19.0 47.6 47.0 107.2 64.5 52.5 19.0 32.3 49.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 22.3 37.5 42.0 94.0 56.5 48.3 22.0 32.9 45.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 41.1 43.8 42.7 101.5 61.5 53.0 23.1 34.7 48.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 34.0 52.9 53.2 93.4 54.8 48.8 34.6 48.2 64.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 27.4 48.9 43.0 103.9 62.2 54.3 27.5 39.0 52.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 66.1 64.9 60.9 96.7 56.1 50.4 46.3 59.5 74.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 50.2 54.0 44.7 103.3 61.4 52.3 28.6 42.5 59.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 45.2 47.3 44.0 100.0 60.4 52.6 25.1 37.8 53.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 27.8 47.3 42.7 99.3 59.7 52.8 27.6 39.5 53.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 30.9 53.4 48.9 95.0 56.5 50.0 30.0 46.3 65.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 51.6 61.4 53.8 114.0 66.6 55.0 30.3 44.1 60.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 21.2 39.8 42.2 94.4 56.8 48.4 21.4 33.8 49.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 49.6 58.7 51.3 113.0 66.2 54.3 26.6 41.0 58.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 22.4 45.0 45.9 100.9 60.8 50.9 23.1 35.5 50.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 55.4 82.8 56.4 95.1 55.4 49.3 55.4 75.8 99.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 23.0 44.8 43.8 105.2 63.0 54.2 22.6 34.0 47.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------