***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.9 14.0 0.5 57.7 56.8 10.4 11.5 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 11.3 11.4 13.9 0.4 56.2 55.5 9.9 11.0 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.7 13.8 13.9 0.5 57.8 56.9 12.3 13.3 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 10.0 9.4 11.8 0.5 59.4 58.4 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 11.5 11.0 11.8 0.6 60.7 59.5 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 9.7 10.1 10.4 0.7 61.9 60.5 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 11.7 11.7 13.9 0.4 56.4 55.7 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 5.4 5.9 10.4 0.7 62.1 60.8 4.0 5.1 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.7 11.9 12.2 0.6 60.4 59.1 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 12.0 11.8 10.9 0.7 62.8 61.3 10.1 11.0 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 11.6 11.3 11.6 0.7 63.0 61.5 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 9.6 9.9 11.1 0.6 60.9 59.7 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 10.3 10.5 10.6 0.6 60.2 59.2 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 11.8 12.1 12.3 0.5 59.4 58.4 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.3 12.2 0.4 57.9 57.2 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 11.7 12.0 11.2 0.6 61.0 59.9 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.9 13.6 0.5 58.0 56.9 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.2 10.6 10.3 0.7 62.8 61.2 8.9 9.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.7 13.8 0.4 56.8 56.0 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 6.3 6.6 9.0 0.7 61.2 59.9 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.4 13.2 0.5 58.9 57.9 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 10.9 10.9 13.5 0.4 56.4 55.6 9.6 10.6 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.2 13.6 0.4 57.5 56.6 9.6 10.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.3 11.6 12.1 0.6 60.8 59.5 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 11.8 12.2 12.5 0.6 61.2 59.7 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 10.5 10.5 10.7 0.4 56.3 55.6 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 11.9 12.3 13.3 0.6 60.1 58.7 10.1 11.5 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.3 12.0 0.4 57.3 56.8 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 9.2 9.7 9.8 0.7 62.8 61.4 7.8 8.9 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 11.9 11.9 14.0 0.4 56.0 55.4 10.5 11.5 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------