***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.7 12.6 0.1 51.4 50.8 9.8 10.6 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.2 10.9 12.5 0.1 52.0 51.6 9.7 10.8 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.3 12.9 12.3 0.0 50.3 50.0 12.0 12.9 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.9 8.4 10.0 -0.1 48.3 49.0 7.3 8.5 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.7 10.1 0.0 50.0 50.2 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.9 8.8 0.2 53.9 53.6 7.8 8.7 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.0 12.5 0.1 51.8 51.4 10.0 10.9 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.9 8.8 0.1 51.2 51.3 3.8 4.8 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.6 10.6 0.0 50.3 50.2 9.6 10.6 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.7 10.4 9.2 0.1 51.0 51.0 9.5 10.4 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.9 9.8 0.1 51.3 51.3 8.9 9.8 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.3 8.9 9.4 -0.1 48.8 49.4 8.0 9.0 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.4 8.9 -0.1 48.2 48.8 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.0 10.7 0.0 50.9 50.8 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.5 10.4 -0.2 46.5 47.6 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.1 10.8 9.5 0.0 49.7 50.0 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.1 12.2 0.3 54.8 53.8 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.3 8.6 0.1 51.0 51.1 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.1 10.8 12.4 0.1 51.8 51.4 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 5.9 5.8 7.5 0.2 53.0 52.8 4.8 5.6 6.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.3 11.6 0.0 50.0 49.8 9.3 10.3 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.0 12.1 0.2 53.6 53.0 9.0 9.9 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.3 12.0 0.1 50.9 50.7 9.3 10.3 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.2 10.4 0.0 50.6 50.5 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.1 10.9 0.1 52.2 51.7 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.5 9.3 -0.1 47.3 47.4 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.4 11.7 0.2 52.8 52.0 9.9 11.2 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.6 8.9 10.2 -0.2 46.2 47.4 8.1 9.2 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 8.9 8.6 8.2 0.1 51.1 51.4 7.5 8.5 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.1 12.6 0.1 51.0 50.7 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------