***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 10.0 9.5 11.1 0.0 49.6 49.6 8.4 9.6 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.9 9.6 11.1 0.1 51.2 50.8 8.2 9.5 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.7 10.9 0.0 49.2 49.5 10.7 11.7 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 7.5 6.9 8.7 -0.1 47.5 48.5 5.8 7.1 8.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.6 8.8 0.0 49.3 49.9 7.4 8.7 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.1 7.5 0.1 51.9 51.9 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.8 11.1 0.1 51.5 51.0 8.6 9.7 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.1 3.6 7.5 0.0 49.7 50.2 2.6 3.7 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.9 9.2 0.0 50.8 50.8 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.5 7.9 0.1 51.2 51.4 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.1 8.5 0.0 50.6 51.0 7.9 9.0 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.7 8.1 -0.1 47.6 48.7 6.8 7.9 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.4 7.7 -0.1 47.7 48.6 7.4 8.5 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.0 9.2 0.0 49.7 50.0 9.1 10.0 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.3 9.8 9.2 -0.1 48.2 49.3 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.8 8.2 -0.1 48.7 49.4 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 10.1 10.0 10.8 0.2 54.1 53.0 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.0 8.3 7.3 0.0 50.0 50.3 7.2 8.3 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.7 11.0 0.0 50.8 50.7 8.5 9.7 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.2 4.5 6.1 -0.1 49.0 48.8 3.5 4.6 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.3 10.2 0.0 49.6 49.8 8.1 9.3 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.0 10.7 0.1 52.2 51.7 7.8 8.9 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.6 9.2 10.6 0.0 50.1 50.3 8.2 9.2 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.3 9.1 0.0 49.6 50.0 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.2 9.8 9.5 0.0 50.3 50.4 8.5 9.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 7.4 8.2 7.9 -0.4 42.9 44.5 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.1 10.3 0.1 51.1 50.9 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.0 9.0 -0.2 46.6 47.8 7.1 8.2 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.2 7.4 6.9 -0.1 48.5 49.1 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 10.4 10.0 11.2 0.0 50.1 50.0 8.7 10.0 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------