***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.2 13.4 0.4 59.4 58.4 10.1 10.8 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 10.9 11.2 13.2 0.5 60.7 59.3 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.3 13.2 0.4 59.5 58.5 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 8.7 9.0 11.0 0.5 61.9 60.6 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 10.0 10.3 11.1 0.5 62.6 61.3 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 45 55 100 9.5 9.4 9.7 0.6 64.8 63.1 8.2 8.9 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.3 13.3 0.4 60.2 59.0 10.3 10.9 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 4.9 5.2 9.6 0.5 62.2 61.0 4.1 4.7 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 11.0 11.3 11.6 0.5 62.9 61.4 10.2 10.9 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 10.7 11.0 10.1 0.6 64.0 62.5 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 10.3 10.6 10.8 0.5 64.0 62.5 9.4 10.1 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 9.0 9.2 10.3 0.4 60.2 59.2 8.3 8.9 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 9.7 9.9 9.9 0.4 60.3 59.0 8.9 9.5 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 11.3 11.5 11.5 0.5 61.6 60.3 10.5 11.1 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 11.3 11.3 11.5 0.2 56.1 55.7 10.5 11.1 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 11.1 11.4 10.5 0.5 62.8 61.2 10.3 10.9 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 11.7 11.6 13.0 0.6 65.2 63.0 10.4 11.0 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 9.5 9.9 9.4 0.5 63.7 62.2 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.3 13.2 0.5 61.0 59.6 10.2 10.8 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 5.8 6.1 8.1 0.5 62.5 61.2 5.0 5.6 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.8 12.6 0.4 60.3 59.2 9.8 10.4 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.5 12.9 0.5 61.8 60.4 9.5 10.1 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 10.6 10.8 12.9 0.5 61.3 60.0 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 10.7 10.9 11.3 0.5 62.2 60.8 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.4 11.9 0.5 61.5 60.3 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 9.9 9.9 10.0 0.2 55.9 55.1 9.1 9.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.7 12.6 0.5 61.8 60.5 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 9.5 9.6 11.2 0.3 57.8 57.1 8.6 9.3 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 8.7 9.1 9.0 0.5 63.3 61.9 7.8 8.5 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 11.4 11.5 13.4 0.4 58.9 57.9 10.4 11.1 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------