***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 25.0 25.3 24.8 0.5 56.2 56.0 23.2 24.8 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 25.0 25.0 24.6 0.2 53.0 52.8 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 25.0 25.1 24.8 0.3 53.6 53.5 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 94 6 100 17.9 17.7 22.4 0.0 50.2 50.2 16.1 17.7 19.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 92 8 100 25.4 25.5 23.4 0.3 53.4 53.2 23.6 25.2 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 93 7 100 24.3 24.4 21.2 0.3 53.6 53.5 22.5 24.1 25.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 24.6 24.8 24.6 0.4 54.6 54.5 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 92 8 100 13.8 13.6 21.3 0.0 50.4 50.4 12.1 13.6 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 25.1 25.2 24.1 0.3 53.8 53.6 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 24.7 24.6 22.3 0.1 51.6 51.5 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 93 7 100 25.1 25.2 23.1 0.2 53.0 52.8 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 24.3 24.1 22.2 0.0 49.5 49.5 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 94 6 100 25.2 25.2 22.4 0.2 51.9 51.8 23.5 25.1 26.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 25.0 25.0 23.5 0.3 54.2 53.9 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 25.6 25.3 23.9 -0.1 48.9 49.0 24.0 25.4 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 95 5 100 25.9 26.0 22.9 0.3 53.5 53.3 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 24.1 24.2 24.2 0.3 54.3 54.1 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 23.9 23.9 21.5 0.2 52.7 52.6 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 92 8 100 24.7 24.7 24.6 0.2 52.5 52.4 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 92 8 100 20.0 20.1 19.6 0.3 54.0 53.9 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 25.2 25.4 24.7 0.3 54.0 53.8 23.6 25.0 26.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 24.7 24.7 24.0 0.2 52.8 52.7 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 24.9 24.9 24.5 0.2 52.7 52.6 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 24.7 24.7 23.3 0.3 53.9 53.8 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 25.0 25.4 23.7 0.6 57.1 56.8 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 25.1 24.6 21.5 -0.3 46.9 47.0 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 24.9 25.4 24.4 0.7 58.8 58.4 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 94 6 100 25.6 25.3 23.0 -0.1 48.4 48.4 24.0 25.5 26.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 91 9 100 19.3 19.5 20.9 0.4 55.2 54.9 17.6 19.0 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 24.8 24.9 24.8 0.2 52.9 52.8 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------