***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 23.3 22.2 21.6 -0.5 44.2 45.8 21.2 22.7 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 23.7 22.6 21.7 -0.4 45.2 46.4 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 23.8 22.7 21.7 -0.5 44.2 45.7 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 16.6 15.3 19.9 -0.7 41.1 43.1 14.5 16.1 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 24.2 23.1 20.2 -0.5 43.6 45.3 22.0 23.7 25.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 23.3 22.4 18.9 -0.3 46.5 47.4 21.1 22.7 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 23.3 22.3 21.6 -0.3 46.1 47.2 21.2 22.7 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.1 12.2 19.1 -0.3 46.0 47.4 11.0 12.5 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 23.9 22.8 20.6 -0.5 44.6 46.2 21.7 23.3 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 23.5 22.5 19.6 -0.3 46.0 47.4 21.2 22.9 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 24.0 23.0 20.0 -0.4 45.4 46.9 21.7 23.4 24.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 23.3 22.1 19.8 -0.5 44.2 45.8 20.9 22.6 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 24.2 23.0 19.4 -0.6 43.5 45.2 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 23.9 23.0 20.6 -0.1 48.2 48.9 21.4 23.2 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 23.8 22.4 20.1 -0.9 39.2 41.3 21.8 23.3 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 24.7 23.7 19.8 -0.5 44.2 45.8 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.1 21.5 -0.2 47.5 48.3 20.9 22.3 23.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 22.8 22.0 19.2 -0.2 48.0 49.0 20.5 22.2 23.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 23.5 22.4 21.8 -0.4 45.2 46.4 21.3 22.8 24.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 18.9 18.2 17.4 -0.1 48.7 49.5 16.6 18.3 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 23.9 22.7 21.2 -0.5 43.7 45.4 21.7 23.3 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 23.7 22.8 21.5 -0.2 47.3 48.1 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 23.6 22.6 21.7 -0.3 46.1 47.1 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 23.6 22.7 20.5 -0.2 47.3 48.3 21.3 23.0 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 23.3 22.4 20.2 -0.4 44.7 46.1 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 23.8 22.5 19.4 -0.7 41.8 43.7 21.6 23.2 24.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 23.3 22.5 21.0 -0.3 45.9 47.1 21.4 22.8 24.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 24.0 22.6 20.1 -0.8 40.0 42.1 21.9 23.5 24.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.2 17.5 18.4 -0.1 49.1 49.8 15.8 17.6 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 23.4 22.4 21.8 -0.4 44.3 45.8 21.4 22.8 24.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------