***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 19.2 20.0 19.5 -0.9 38.4 40.8 19.6 21.0 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 20.0 20.8 19.5 -0.9 38.6 41.0 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 20.0 20.7 19.6 -1.0 37.9 40.4 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 12.3 12.9 17.8 -1.2 35.3 38.0 12.7 14.4 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 19.9 20.6 18.1 -1.0 37.2 39.6 20.2 21.7 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 18.9 19.8 17.0 -0.9 39.2 41.0 19.2 20.7 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 19.7 20.5 19.4 -0.8 39.7 41.8 20.0 21.2 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.4 10.3 17.1 -0.9 39.4 41.3 9.8 11.1 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 19.8 20.5 18.5 -1.0 37.8 40.2 20.1 21.5 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 19.5 20.4 17.6 -0.9 39.3 41.3 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 19.9 20.7 18.0 -0.9 39.1 41.1 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 19.3 20.0 17.8 -1.0 37.6 39.9 19.6 21.1 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 20.1 20.9 17.5 -1.1 36.5 39.1 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 20.6 21.3 18.4 -0.9 39.1 41.7 20.9 22.1 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 19.5 20.0 18.1 -1.3 34.2 36.9 19.9 21.3 22.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 20.7 21.4 17.8 -1.0 37.6 39.9 21.0 22.4 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 19.4 20.2 19.2 -0.8 39.6 41.7 19.7 20.9 21.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 19.2 20.1 17.1 -0.8 40.4 42.2 19.5 20.8 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 19.7 20.5 19.6 -0.9 38.2 40.8 20.1 21.4 22.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 15.4 16.5 15.4 -0.7 41.1 42.7 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 19.9 20.5 19.1 -1.0 37.2 39.8 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 20.0 20.9 19.2 -0.9 38.6 41.1 20.5 21.7 22.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 20.1 20.8 19.5 -0.9 38.3 40.9 20.4 21.6 22.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 20.0 20.8 18.4 -0.9 39.4 41.6 20.3 21.7 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 19.3 20.1 18.2 -0.9 38.4 40.6 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 19.9 20.4 17.3 -1.3 34.4 37.4 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 19.6 20.5 18.8 -0.8 39.8 41.8 19.9 21.3 22.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 19.5 19.9 18.0 -1.3 34.3 37.1 19.8 21.4 22.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.8 16.4 -0.7 41.0 42.8 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 19.7 20.5 19.6 -0.9 38.4 40.8 20.1 21.3 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------