***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 23.1 22.6 22.2 -0.3 45.9 46.8 21.9 22.8 23.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 23.4 22.9 22.1 -0.3 44.5 45.7 22.2 23.2 24.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 23.5 22.9 22.2 -0.4 44.2 45.2 22.3 23.2 24.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 16.5 15.6 20.3 -0.6 40.6 41.8 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 23.9 23.3 20.7 -0.4 43.4 44.4 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 23.0 22.5 19.2 -0.3 46.0 46.5 21.7 22.7 23.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 23.1 22.6 22.1 -0.2 46.3 47.3 21.9 22.8 23.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 12.8 12.3 19.3 -0.4 43.8 44.7 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 23.6 23.0 21.2 -0.4 44.1 45.0 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 23.3 22.7 20.0 -0.4 44.4 45.3 22.0 23.0 23.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 23.7 23.2 20.5 -0.3 44.8 45.6 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 23.1 22.3 20.1 -0.5 41.9 43.0 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 24.1 23.3 19.9 -0.5 42.2 43.2 22.8 23.8 24.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 23.7 23.1 21.0 -0.3 45.9 46.8 22.3 23.3 24.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 23.7 22.9 20.8 -0.7 38.8 40.2 22.6 23.5 24.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 24.6 23.9 20.3 -0.4 43.8 44.7 23.3 24.3 25.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 22.6 22.1 21.9 -0.2 46.2 47.2 21.4 22.3 23.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 22.6 22.1 19.4 -0.3 45.9 46.7 21.4 22.3 23.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 23.2 22.6 22.2 -0.4 44.0 45.3 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 18.8 18.4 17.6 -0.2 46.9 47.6 17.6 18.5 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 23.6 23.0 21.8 -0.4 43.8 44.8 22.4 23.4 24.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 23.4 22.8 21.8 -0.3 44.8 46.0 22.1 23.1 24.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 23.4 22.8 22.1 -0.3 44.4 45.5 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 23.4 22.8 20.9 -0.3 45.8 46.6 22.1 23.1 24.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 23.2 22.8 20.9 -0.2 46.6 47.3 22.1 23.0 23.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 23.8 22.8 19.6 -0.7 38.6 39.9 22.5 23.5 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 23.2 22.9 21.6 -0.1 48.4 49.0 22.1 23.0 23.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 23.9 23.0 20.6 -0.7 38.8 40.2 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 18.2 17.7 18.7 -0.2 47.5 48.1 16.9 17.9 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 23.2 22.6 22.3 -0.4 44.2 45.4 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------