***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 17.5 22.6 19.9 146.4 76.6 65.6 4.0 8.5 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 16.2 21.1 19.3 155.9 78.7 67.9 4.3 8.4 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 15.5 20.4 19.8 146.9 76.9 66.3 3.9 7.9 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 10.0 15.9 17.6 110.9 68.1 60.4 3.2 7.6 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 16.1 20.1 23.1 156.5 78.7 71.5 3.0 6.7 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 12.9 18.4 26.9 180.3 82.6 76.3 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 17.6 24.6 20.7 163.5 80.0 69.8 3.6 8.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 22.4 25.7 22.0 141.8 75.5 69.1 4.4 9.7 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 15.2 20.5 24.0 167.1 80.6 74.0 3.1 6.7 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 16.7 20.1 24.8 153.1 78.0 72.2 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 13.0 16.2 20.4 143.5 76.0 68.7 2.7 6.1 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 13.4 15.5 18.3 142.1 75.5 68.7 2.7 6.0 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 13.8 18.7 23.5 169.1 81.0 74.9 2.6 5.7 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 22.7 28.8 23.4 149.5 77.6 69.5 4.0 9.4 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.4 7.6 13.6 91.1 62.3 52.7 2.0 4.5 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 14.0 19.0 23.9 167.9 80.8 74.3 2.5 5.8 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 19.2 23.8 19.3 154.6 78.5 69.1 3.8 8.2 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 18.2 20.4 24.5 140.8 75.5 70.2 4.2 8.5 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 17.8 23.1 18.9 151.2 77.7 67.1 4.4 9.0 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 20.6 22.1 22.4 126.9 71.9 66.3 5.0 10.2 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 16.9 21.4 20.7 151.3 77.6 68.5 4.3 8.6 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 19.6 21.7 18.2 134.5 74.0 65.8 4.7 9.5 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 15.5 20.4 19.6 153.1 78.2 68.0 4.1 8.0 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 19.6 23.9 24.0 151.4 77.9 70.5 3.8 8.4 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 10.9 17.0 18.4 115.8 69.3 61.4 4.0 8.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 12.2 15.7 20.8 155.9 78.4 70.8 1.9 4.8 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 10.9 18.0 19.1 127.1 71.8 62.0 4.0 8.3 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 6.4 9.8 17.5 115.0 68.6 60.5 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 27.5 28.9 22.4 129.9 72.6 67.2 6.9 13.6 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 15.5 20.6 19.7 155.8 78.6 67.7 4.5 8.3 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------