***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.3 12.1 8.9 88.8 63.3 47.4 3.9 7.7 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 9.5 12.7 10.4 105.6 66.9 53.5 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 10.3 14.0 9.9 102.4 66.7 53.2 3.8 7.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.4 15.7 12.5 107.0 69.0 50.9 4.3 8.5 14.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 9.1 14.9 13.7 125.8 73.0 58.2 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 11.8 14.5 22.0 144.0 76.7 62.3 3.4 6.3 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.0 13.6 11.1 112.8 68.9 54.3 4.2 7.8 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.8 21.1 13.2 109.5 68.6 51.7 6.0 11.6 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.9 18.3 14.4 133.4 74.5 59.4 3.8 7.9 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.2 16.3 15.3 124.5 72.2 57.4 4.9 8.6 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.1 13.1 11.2 115.6 70.5 53.9 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.2 11.9 10.4 104.8 67.9 49.5 3.7 6.8 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 12.6 13.7 15.8 124.2 72.9 60.2 3.7 6.8 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.5 20.0 13.7 113.9 69.5 57.5 4.7 10.0 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.1 11.3 12.3 105.5 68.9 50.5 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.8 12.2 14.0 124.2 73.0 58.9 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.9 14.3 12.0 123.0 71.7 55.7 4.3 7.6 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.3 20.7 18.1 128.6 73.3 61.7 4.5 9.3 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.8 12.5 9.7 101.7 65.8 52.2 3.7 7.4 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 13.9 22.6 19.8 125.0 72.2 61.3 5.5 10.7 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.4 16.5 10.9 110.2 69.3 52.5 3.4 7.7 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.8 13.8 11.5 115.0 69.5 53.7 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.4 13.2 10.0 105.3 66.4 53.0 4.2 7.9 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.6 20.8 14.6 121.7 71.6 59.4 4.2 9.3 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.4 14.0 12.4 102.1 67.6 52.8 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.0 11.6 11.2 102.8 68.1 52.8 3.8 6.9 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.6 14.0 11.0 91.5 64.2 49.0 3.9 8.3 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.4 12.4 12.9 110.1 70.0 52.1 2.8 6.0 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.8 29.8 18.1 125.2 72.3 61.4 7.5 14.5 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.1 11.7 9.7 99.7 65.5 52.1 3.4 6.8 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------