***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.5 16.0 9.0 136.7 74.7 49.6 3.1 6.5 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 9.1 13.4 9.7 128.1 72.7 53.7 3.8 6.8 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.2 15.0 9.4 133.2 73.8 52.8 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.7 15.9 9.8 108.8 68.5 50.5 3.8 8.1 14.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.0 11.2 10.0 108.4 68.2 51.2 2.5 5.6 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.6 12.2 12.9 112.2 69.4 55.0 3.6 6.6 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.6 12.3 9.7 121.3 71.1 52.2 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.9 16.4 9.4 87.4 61.9 49.7 6.1 11.4 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.3 11.3 10.4 115.5 69.9 52.4 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.7 13.6 10.8 101.5 66.0 52.9 4.2 8.1 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.2 8.5 7.9 88.1 62.2 47.2 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.5 9.0 7.1 86.2 61.5 46.2 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.0 12.3 9.8 105.1 67.6 52.4 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.5 18.2 11.6 116.2 69.7 58.0 4.7 9.4 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.1 11.8 8.8 110.0 69.4 50.5 2.9 6.0 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.1 9.8 9.0 96.2 65.4 50.1 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.8 10.0 9.9 113.0 69.4 52.0 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.2 18.5 13.8 117.3 70.2 58.6 4.8 9.4 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.1 14.0 9.5 129.1 73.0 54.3 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 13.2 18.9 15.9 107.7 67.8 58.1 4.9 10.0 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.6 13.3 9.3 122.8 71.5 49.3 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.8 10.6 9.8 109.1 68.4 52.4 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.1 14.8 9.4 125.4 72.1 55.0 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.0 17.0 12.1 126.1 72.3 58.1 4.2 8.2 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.0 14.3 10.5 128.0 72.8 52.3 3.6 6.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.6 13.5 8.9 123.7 72.2 52.4 3.1 6.4 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.7 14.4 9.9 129.3 72.9 51.1 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.1 10.0 9.5 105.0 68.0 50.1 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 17.3 26.4 15.0 118.7 70.5 59.5 6.7 13.3 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.1 11.7 9.5 132.8 73.8 53.2 2.4 5.0 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------