***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 2.2 9.8 8.7 110.2 68.6 45.2 2.6 5.2 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 2.1 8.5 9.2 100.7 66.1 47.4 2.4 4.8 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.7 13.3 9.3 111.7 69.2 47.2 4.2 7.6 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 6.9 25.5 10.0 107.7 68.8 47.7 7.1 13.8 23.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 5.6 18.7 10.2 122.7 71.8 50.0 5.8 10.2 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.2 16.3 12.9 110.4 69.0 49.5 3.8 8.2 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.7 10.9 9.1 101.4 66.2 46.4 2.9 6.2 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 5.5 20.4 10.6 114.9 69.6 50.9 5.5 10.7 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 5.2 16.5 10.5 129.5 73.2 50.5 5.3 9.0 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.0 18.2 11.5 124.4 72.0 52.5 6.1 10.2 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.7 18.5 9.4 120.0 71.1 50.3 4.7 9.3 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.9 15.3 8.7 111.8 69.2 49.1 3.7 7.6 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.2 15.2 10.6 112.3 69.7 50.8 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.9 16.5 11.3 100.8 65.8 49.5 6.2 10.6 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 3.8 16.4 9.3 95.1 66.3 46.4 3.8 8.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.2 12.8 9.7 111.2 69.4 50.0 3.0 6.3 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.4 8.4 8.9 96.3 64.6 46.0 2.4 5.0 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.1 14.1 12.6 118.1 70.0 53.0 5.2 8.5 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.1 9.4 9.3 102.0 66.7 48.5 3.4 6.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.4 14.1 14.2 113.2 68.5 52.7 4.4 8.1 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 4.4 16.7 9.2 122.8 71.9 47.8 4.9 8.9 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.1 9.6 9.4 93.9 63.8 47.0 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.9 11.4 9.5 103.6 66.9 49.1 4.1 7.1 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.7 16.5 11.4 113.5 69.1 51.0 6.0 10.0 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 4.2 17.9 10.7 118.6 71.1 49.0 4.5 8.9 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.2 17.6 10.3 123.7 72.2 51.9 4.0 8.2 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.9 13.3 10.3 113.4 69.5 47.2 3.1 6.5 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 5.1 18.3 9.6 99.9 67.1 46.3 5.2 10.3 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.1 22.1 13.3 115.8 69.3 52.5 7.3 12.7 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 2.4 9.7 9.1 103.0 66.8 46.4 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------